Recently, major institutions have been arguing quite fiercely. Some insist that there will only be one rate cut throughout the year, while others are betting on continuous easing starting from March. But these are just the appetizers; what might really stir up a storm is the rare "disconnection" among global central banks.

Imagine this scenario: the Federal Reserve is still weighing its options repeatedly, while central banks in Japan, Europe, and others have already started considering tightening policies. If such a misalignment truly occurs, what would happen?

The most immediate consequence would be a massive movement of cross-border capital. The arbitrage games that profit from interest rate differentials could instantly reverse, forcing large amounts of funds to urgently find new places to go. Cryptocurrency markets, operating 24/7 with deep liquidity, would naturally become the first to absorb this capital wave. At that point, volatility would likely significantly increase.

Historical experience tells us that whenever major central banks fall out of sync, it’s often the beginning of a black swan event. This time, it’s no longer just about easing or tightening; it becomes a complex liquidity triangular game. As major central banks’ policies diverge, the logic of traditional markets will be disrupted, and assets with safe-haven and high liquidity attributes will be the first to feel this change. For crypto market participants, this presents both risks and opportunities.