2025-12-31 17:23:01

Recently, I've received many similar questions: "Long-term holders have stopped selling. Is it time to buy the dip?" "I heard the bull market is coming. Can I still get in?"

Having been active in the crypto space for seven years and experienced two major crashes, I must be honest— a decrease in long-term holders' positions is indeed a good signal, but it far from means you should go all-in. There's a lot of nuance in between.

Today, I want to share some behind-the-scenes practical strategies to help everyone stay rationally on the sidelines before the bull market, avoiding pitfalls and missing out.

First, it's important to clarify a fact: the movement of long-term holders' positions is just one signal of a market turn, but the start of a bull market won't happen overnight. There will definitely be fluctuations and volatility. The mature approach isn't to gamble on the trend but to use strategies to respond to these fluctuations—that's the correct investment posture.

**Step 1: Keep a close eye on "quantitative indicators of position stabilization"**

Many people see long-term holders beginning to reduce pressure and can't help but want to enter the market, but there's a detail that's easy to overlook—decreasing holdings ≠ starting to increase. The key next step is to observe the specific changes in on-chain data regarding the balance of holdings. If the balance rebounds from the cycle's lows and maintains a net inflow for more than two consecutive weeks, then we can say the "accumulation cycle" has truly started. Confirm this signal before taking action; this will significantly improve your success rate and help you avoid the traps set by short-term volatility. Conversely, if this condition isn't met, a price jump is likely just a rebound, and rushing in could lead to getting caught.

**Step 2: Track the "dual indicators of demand revival"**

When long-term holders' pressure eases, it indeed solves the problem of "sell-side accumulation." But to truly kick off a bull market, we also need to see whether "buy-side demand is sufficient." Both indicators need to be considered together—

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NFTregretter

· 9h ago

It's the same all-in logic again... Seven years of being a rookie, just listen and forget, but in the end, you still have to lose money to understand.

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GasFeeTherapist

· 23h ago

Huh? Just looking at long-term holders reducing their positions and wanting to go all-in—this mindset is just asking for death. There are many pitfalls in between. Only two consecutive weeks of net inflow count; otherwise, it's just a rebound. For retail investors like us, it's just a trap. Buying data must be combined with other indicators; otherwise, even the most beautiful signals are useless. It's better to stay calm and wait.

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BearWhisperGod

· 2025-12-31 17:52

Even seasoned veterans with seven years of experience say don't go all-in, and you still want to gamble it all... You need to change that mindset.

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OvertimeSquid

· 2025-12-31 17:51

Coming back with this again? To see if the holdings stabilize, we need to look at the two-week net inflow. Sounds very reliable, but can anyone really resist going all-in? Haha

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AirdropHunter007

· 2025-12-31 17:50

Really, don't foolishly go all-in without thinking. I've heard this logic too many times, and every time it's been a painful lesson. Wait, does it only count if there's net inflow for two consecutive weeks? I feel like that standard is a bit high, like waiting until the flowers have withered. I'm just worried that when that wave of market movement comes, I'll still be busy crunching numbers, and I'll miss out again, sob sob sob. Honestly, it still depends on the specific market trend. I feel like this framework is a bit too theoretical.

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WalletWhisperer

· 2025-12-31 17:32

Coming back with the same routine? Every time I hear about bottom-fishing, but it's always the same pattern... I remember during the last bull market, there was no net inflow in two weeks either. Looking at the on-chain data, there are so many people moving, but how many actually make a profit in the end... Still the same advice: don't act without a confirmed signal.

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