2025-12-31 18:20:28

The wave of market activity in the early morning was quite interesting——after the Federal Reserve injected 16 billion, Bitcoin initially surged upward, but within less than three hours, it was pushed back down. Is this a rescue or a test of the waters? To put it simply, it's a probing move.

A vivid analogy comes from research by a leading financial institution: Bitcoin is like the canary in the coal mine for global liquidity. This bird always crows ahead of policy changes. Currently, it’s anxiously circling, often signaling that a bigger storm is coming.

**Why is Bitcoin called the "canary"? A look at history explains**

In 2025, global central banks cut interest rates a total of 316 times, and Bitcoin responded with a sharp surge—that was the initial reaction. But when liquidity truly started tightening (for example, during the tech stock crash in November), Bitcoin was among the first to plunge. Before the 16 billion injection this time, Bitcoin had already rebounded 13% from the low of $80,000, a typical "front-running" move ahead of the Federal Reserve’s rhythm. My view is that Bitcoin is not a currency but a thermometer for global liquidity.

**Three things to watch in 2026**

First is Japan’s interest rate hike. The market expects the Bank of Japan to raise rates by 0.25% this week, with a high probability. If it happens, carry trades will unwind, potentially draining a large wave of liquidity globally. The single-day liquidation in December last year ($600 million) could happen again.

The regulatory overhaul of DeFi is also worth paying attention to. The Federal Reserve is pushing forward with a "simplified main account" system, allowing crypto institutions to connect directly to the central bank’s payment system. This means DeFi protocols will need to embed regulatory interfaces to survive, with zero-knowledge proof technology becoming key to balancing compliance and privacy.

Finally, the interplay between the AI bubble and crypto. When AI stocks like Intel and Broadcom fall, Bitcoin often follows suit. This correlation warrants ongoing monitoring.

BTC1,49%

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MemecoinTrader

· 19h ago

yo so basically the fed just threw 16B at the market and btc did that classic pump-and-dump theater in what, 3 hours? classic psyops playbook... testing sentiment before the real move happens fr fr

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Degen4Breakfast

· 01-01 14:15

The metaphor of the canary is brilliant, but I think it's more like a gambler... the kind who rushes out and ends up bloodied and broken. 16 billion went in and was wiped out in three hours, hilarious. This move is deeply套路.

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AirdropDreamer

· 2025-12-31 18:49

16 billion just want to stabilize? Bitcoin, this bird, has long flown away and disappeared. Do they really think we're fools? Japan wants to raise interest rates? When the carry trade explodes, that will be truly exciting. Do you remember the 600 million liquidation last June? Want to see it happen again? Embedding regulatory interfaces into DeFi? Just hearing it makes me uncomfortable. Isn't this putting shackles on wild assets? When AI stocks plunge, Bitcoin follows suit. Where is the promised independent asset? The correlation is just too tight. The canary metaphor is perfect. Whenever it chirps, we all have to perk up our ears. One mistake and it's a heavy loss.

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FudVaccinator

· 2025-12-31 18:47

The Canary metaphor is truly brilliant, and Bitcoin is once again singing a warning song for us. 16 billion entered and was wiped out in just three hours; this pace is truly extraordinary, feels like the Federal Reserve is playing Tai Chi. If the Bank of Japan really raises interest rates, it will definitely trigger another wave of bloodshed. How long has it been since the 600 million liquidation in December last year?

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HodlVeteran

· 2025-12-31 18:46

Canary? Ha, I remember we used to call it the "Chives Cutter" back in the day... 16 billion went in and the true nature was revealed in just three hours. Isn't this just the Federal Reserve testing our bottom line? Same old tricks.

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BugBountyHunter

· 2025-12-31 18:38

16 billion, that move was truly brilliant. I'm just worried it might be another "faint attack" play. I've seen the Fed's preemptive moves with Bitcoin too many times; it's a well-worn tactic. If the Bank of Japan actually raises interest rates this week, carry trades will explode, and it will be quite lively then.

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