On the first trading day of the new year, Ethereum repeatedly tests the $2,800 level. Will a breakout lead to a new altcoin season? Or will it pull back to fill the gap? This could be the most critical decision point at the start of 2026. If you're trading, these 3 signals are worth paying close attention to.

**First Signal: Technicals Have Reached a Critical Point**

Looking at the weekly chart, Ethereum has been consolidating in the $2,750 to $2,950 range for a full 7 weeks. Volatility has dropped to the lowest level of the year, and the Bollinger Bands are very narrow, indicating a typical buildup pattern—suggesting a potential imminent breakout.

Remember these support levels: $2,750, which is a previous high turned support, and below that, the weekly moving average at $2,600. There are also two key resistance levels: $2,950, which was tested three times last year without breaking, and above that, the psychological threshold of $3,200.

In simple terms: breaking above $2,750 could open up a move toward $2,400, but if it holds above $2,950, the target could easily be above $3,500.

**Second Signal: SEC Decision Becomes a Variable**

On January 15, the US SEC will make a final decision on Ethereum spot ETF (currently, the market estimates about a 35% chance of approval). There are two possible outcomes:

If approved, Ethereum might follow the short-term pattern seen after Bitcoin ETF approval in 2024—"good news realized, then a pullback." However, in the long term, the opportunity for ecosystem valuation re-rating remains.

If rejected, the short-term negative factors will be exhausted, potentially creating a buying opportunity.

Regardless of the outcome, this timing is a crucial window to determine the upcoming market rhythm. Now, it’s all about how technicals and policy expectations will align.