Recently, as soon as the central bank meeting minutes were released, my social circle was instantly split into two camps: one shouting "Bull market is here, go all in," and the other getting anxious, "Hurry up and run, don’t get caught." Watching these two factions clash, I honestly feel a bit helpless.

Having been involved in the crypto market for many years and witnessing several waves of boom and bust, I want to say a fair word: your judgments both missed the point. This meeting’s minutes are not at all giving a green light for a bull market, nor are they a signal that "bad news is all out." To put it simply, they are conveying a message: the road ahead will be a tangled mess. Want to survive well in this environment? Then you need to give up some illusions and tighten risk controls.

First, let’s look at the key information in these minutes that is easily overlooked—the "ambiguity" of the policy. Many people’s eyes are only fixed on the words "interest rate cut," completely missing the repeated phrases in the minutes like "look at the data" and "maintain flexible adjustment space." In plain language, this means: we’re not entirely sure how things will unfold next, so we’ll wait and see. This kind of uncertainty? It’s actually the biggest hidden risk in the current crypto market.

Think about it: what the crypto market fears most isn’t clear bullish or bearish signals, but rather this ambiguous expectation. When funds don’t know where to invest, the market falls into a strange cycle of "emotion-driven pricing"—rising when the crowd chases the rally, falling when the crowd panics, resulting in repeated oscillations with increasing volatility.

And regarding the "interest rate cut" matter, many people’s logic is: interest rate cut = monetary easing = crypto asset prices rise. But that’s oversimplifying things. This round of rate cuts is actually a "forced choice," not an active loosening. From the wording of the meeting minutes, there are quite significant disagreements internally about the rate cut—some firmly oppose it, others think the cut isn’t enough. This indicates that the top levels are still fighting among themselves. Such disagreements themselves are a risk signal.