Recently, I’ve interacted with quite a few retail investors, and I’ve noticed an interesting phenomenon during our chats: about 80% are worried about whether "Bitcoin can break through 90,000," while the remaining 20% are concerned about "what to do if the 60,000 support level breaks." Speaking of which, I used to be part of that first group—spending every day analyzing candlestick charts for resistance and support, even drawing a "breakout roadmap." But every time the market reversed, my analysis was instantly proven wrong.

Yesterday, I turned off my trading software and lay on the sofa for half an hour, and suddenly I had an epiphany: we’re all confused by the numbers on the chart. The real issue isn’t whether 86,000 or 90,000 can be broken; it’s that the entire market is waiting for a special "Spring Festival window."

Last week, I was chatting with a friend who works in an institutional fund. He revealed that fund managers in the circle are currently playing "small positions." They’re neither willing to heavily buy in bullish nor bearish, relying instead on small trades to profit from price swings. I used to look down on this approach, thinking it lacked vision. But now, I realize they truly understand the rhythm of the market.

Why do large funds choose this approach? It’s simple—the period before the Spring Festival is too special. The mindset of funds at this point is completely different from usual. For retail investors, with the festival approaching, they need to spend money and often think about "cashing out early" by converting crypto assets into cash. For institutions, year-end financial settlements mean that market volatility could impact their annual reports, so they’re also hesitant to make big bets.

This delicate balance of "retail investors selling off and institutions observing" eventually leads to the market repeatedly testing highs and lows within this range. Everyone is waiting—waiting for the market to reprice after the Spring Festival. Instead of obsessing over those two numbers every day, it’s better to understand the underlying capital flow logic—this is the first step to truly understanding the market.