Will the Supreme Court Back Trump's Tariff Plans?

As we wrapped up 2024 heading into the new year, prediction markets were actively pricing this question. Kalshi's data painted an interesting picture of where traders stood: roughly one-third betting on a 'yes' outcome, while two-thirds leaned toward 'no.' That 36%-64% split tells you something about market expectations going into 2025—significant uncertainty around how the highest court might rule on this hot-button policy issue. Whether these tariffs survive judicial scrutiny remains one of the most closely watched calls in the financial ecosystem.