As the year 2025 comes to an end, the festive season that should be filled with celebration is shrouded in an eerie, oppressive atmosphere in the crypto market. Santa Claus didn't deliver gifts on time; instead, a tug-of-war between liquidity and policy is quietly brewing beneath the surface.

By the end of the year, Bitcoin hovers around $88,500, and the entire market feels as if it's been frozen. Experienced crypto traders can sense this unusual sense of suppression — this is not just a typical bear market, but the eye of the storm in the global liquidity war.

The root cause is actually quite clear: Japan is brewing a rate hike, while the US is opening the floodgates. The strange combination of "tightening east and loosening west" has left the entire crypto community feeling anxious.

**Is the central bank's rate cut really a blessing?**

On the surface, the Federal Reserve's rate cut seems positive, but the reality is much more complex. In September 2025, the Fed announced a 0.25 percentage point cut, marking the first real shift towards easing since 2022. The signal is clear: the era of tightening is over.

But the problem is — the magic wand of rate cuts isn't that effective. It can't lower mortgage rates or solve supply-side inflation issues. If homebuyers can't bear the high housing prices, the housing market won't recover.

The real troublemaker is the Bank of Japan. The market widely predicts a 98% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike by the Bank of Japan on December 19. While the Fed is easing, Japan is tightening — this policy divergence has directly left the market at a loss for how to respond.