After the US military action against Venezuela: Trump's related crypto assets did not fall but rose, and the likelihood of impeachment also decreased

At the beginning of the new year, the US military operation against Venezuela not only caused a huge stir on the international political stage but also sparked unique ripples in the financial markets and the crypto asset sector.

The raid directly led to the arrest of Venezuelan President Maduro, and then-President Trump claimed he would take over Venezuela's vast oil industry. These remarks further intensified domestic political controversy in the United States.

Members of the Democratic Party in Congress voiced opposition, with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer outright calling the action "reckless and full of deception," warning that its attempt to control other countries' resources should alert all Americans.

Despite the public outcry, market assessments of Trump's political risk showed an unexpectedly calm reaction. On major political prediction platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, the impeachment probability against Trump decreased rather than increased after the attack.

Taking Polymarket as an example, the current likelihood of his impeachment has dropped to about 10%. This indicates that, at least recently, traders did not see this highly controversial military action as an immediate major threat to Trump's political standing.

Moreover, crypto assets related to Trump's personal brand experienced significant fluctuations. The WLFI token under the Trump family saw double-digit surges within 24 hours of the event; another token, TRUMP, also rose and re-entered the top 100 by market cap.

Overall, the Venezuela incident created an interesting divide between political prediction markets and crypto speculation markets. First, the impeachment probability predicted by traditional political risk models did not materialize; second, the related crypto tokens gave positive market feedback against the trend.

This phenomenon may suggest that, in the current public opinion and market environment, Trump's aggressive military actions are being interpreted by some market participants in the short term as strengthening, rather than weakening, his power image and specific narrative appeal.

#弹劾特朗普 # Prediction Market