#稳定币生态发展 When Libra was announced in 2019, I saw a panic almost threatening the entire financial system's survival. At that time, the mainstream narrative was one tone: stablecoins would drain bank deposits. I was also troubled by this question—if billions of people could hold digital dollars on their phones that could be transferred instantly, who would keep their money in zero-interest, fee-heavy checking accounts?

But the data over these years has slapped me in the face and taught me what it means to view history calmly.

That research from Cornell University completely changed my cognitive framework. It pointed out an counterintuitive truth: despite the explosive growth in stablecoin market cap, there is almost no obvious correlation between the loss of bank deposits and the emergence of stablecoins. Why? Because the stickiness of deposits is far stronger than we imagine. Mortgage loans, credit cards, direct salary payments—these bundled services tightly lock in users, and a few basis points of yield simply can't pry them loose.

The real change occurs on another dimension. The existence of stablecoins itself acts as a discipline constraint, forcing banks to raise deposit interest rates and optimize operational efficiency. This is not a force killing banks, but a catalyst pushing them to evolve. Just like the music industry was forced from CDs to streaming—initial resistance, but eventually realizing it was a gold mine.

The emergence of the 《GENIUS Act》 is even more interesting. It’s not about suppressing stablecoins, but transforming offshore shadow finance into transparent, robust domestic infrastructure. This offers an opportunity to upgrade the US dollar, and a chance for banks to reconstruct their aging clearing systems. Atomic-level settlement, cross-border instant transfers, liquidity release—if banks learn to charge for "speed" rather than "delay," the game rules will be completely rewritten.

Looking at this cycle, I finally understand—true competitive threats are often the best drivers of reform.