Bitcoin price fluctuates around the $90,000 mark as the Federal Reserve's rate cut fails to reverse the market weakness

Current Situation: Rate Cuts as Expected, Market Shows No Excitement

The Federal Reserve has cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points as scheduled, but market reactions remain somewhat tepid. Bitcoin continued to fluctuate around $90,000 during Thursday’s Asian session, with the entire trading period oscillating narrowly between $91,000 and $92,000, showing limited response to this policy adjustment. Real-time data shows Bitcoin trading at approximately $93.77K, with a 24-hour increase of only +0.90%, which is indeed disappointing.

Meanwhile, Ethereum remains around $3,270, and major cryptocurrencies like Ripple and Solana show no significant gains. On-chain fund flows remain cautious, and the overall market is in a wait-and-see mode.

FOMC Divisions Widen, Unclear Outlook for Rate Cuts Next Year

Not all committee members supported this rate cut—two voted to keep rates unchanged, while others advocated for a larger cut. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is clearly divided, with one official even projecting up to six rate cuts next year.

More notably, the Fed’s statement did not explicitly hint at continued rate cuts next year but instead said it would “carefully assess recent data and economic outlook changes.” This wording reveals the Fed is caught in a dilemma: too rapid rate cuts could exacerbate inflationary pressures triggered by tariffs, while too slow cuts might keep the labor market sluggish for a long time, risking an economic recession.

Next Fed Chair Could Shift Crypto Policy Direction

Trump is actively seeking candidates for the next Federal Reserve Chair. Janet Yellen is widely considered a top contender, with data from trading platform Myriad indicating a 73% probability of her nomination before March next year. Notably, Yellen led the drafting of a 168-page report on digital asset regulation and is viewed within the industry as a policymaker who explicitly supports cryptocurrencies.

Current Chair Powell’s term ends in May next year. Trump has repeatedly expressed dissatisfaction with him, calling him a “bad Federal Reserve Chair.” The appointment of a new chair could accelerate the integration of blockchain into the banking system.

Bitcoin Faces “Structural Selling Pressure” Dilemma

Despite actions from large institutions—Michael Saylor’s Strategy Inc. bought 10,624 BTC worth $962.7 million from December 1 to 7, the largest purchase since July—this still seems insufficient to reverse the trend.

Sean McNulty, Head of Derivatives Trading Asia-Pacific at FalconX, pointed out this is an “obvious decoupling phenomenon.” Bitcoin failed to hold above $94,000, indicating that “demand is being overwhelmed by structural selling pressure.” He estimates the next key support level for Bitcoin at $88,500, with $85,000 as the “bottom line.”

On-Chain Data Suggests Selling Pressure May Be Nearing End

According to the latest CryptoQuant report, Bitcoin inflows to crypto exchanges have sharply declined from November’s highs, and whales have reduced their exchange deposits, lowering short-term selling pressure. Data shows that when Bitcoin first fell below $100,000, whale losses exceeded $600 million, with total losses estimated at around $3.2 billion.

A key signal is that since mid-November, short-term holders have been selling at a loss. Historical experience suggests this pattern typically appears only after market sentiment has fully capitulated, often indicating that selling pressure is about to dry up.

Technical Outlook: Multiple Support Levels Competing for Defense

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin failed to break through resistance levels at $94,000 and $94,500, then initiated a downward correction, breaking below $92,000 support. The price is well below the 50% Fibonacci retracement level from the $87,777 low to the $94,583 high, and has also broken below the hourly chart’s upward trendline support at $91,600.

Currently, Bitcoin is trading below $91,200 and under the 100-hour simple moving average, approaching the $89,500 support level. The hourly MACD is accelerating into a bearish zone, and RSI has fallen below 50, indicating technical weakness.

Key Support and Resistance Levels

Resistance:

• $91,200 (recent resistance)
• $91,500 (first key resistance)
• $92,000 (major resistance zone)
• $92,850 (further resistance)
• $93,500
• $94,000–$94,500 (major resistance)

Support:

• $89,500 (recent support)
• $88,800 (first major support)
• $87,750 zone
• $86,500 (short-term target)
• $85,000 (most critical support; a break below could accelerate decline)

Market Focus Shifts to Bank of Japan

The market’s attention has now turned to Tokyo. The consensus expects the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates by 25 basis points at its December 19 meeting. With Japanese long-term government bond yields approaching multi-decade highs, policymakers are concerned about the rising yields. The next major market driver may come from Japan’s policy decisions reshaping global risk appetite.

Overall Assessment

Despite the Fed’s scheduled rate cut, market sentiment remains cautious. Bitcoin’s price, roughly 600,000 RMB at current exchange rates (based on $93.77K), is near a critical support zone. ETF inflows have only modestly improved, and derivatives positions remain cautious. Under multiple macro factors, whether Bitcoin can hold the $85,000 bottom will be key to determining its future direction.