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In early January 2026, spot ETF reversed the net outflow at the end of the year. This billions-level net inflow is external incremental capital, not on-exchange leverage. This indicates that after completing the annual rebalancing, institutions are building positions with a new cost basis around $90,000.

Short squeezes are usually accompanied by a surge in contract holdings and extremely distorted funding rates. However, the current rates are moderate, indicating that longs have not over-leveraged, and the price increase is mainly driven by spot buying.

On-chain data shows that LTHs have not experienced panic selling or large-scale distribution above $90,000. The hallmark of a main upward wave is usually a consensus rally after turnover, and the current concentration of chips is very conducive to a breakout above $100,000. The market structure is relatively healthy.

Although the market structure is healthy, caution should be exercised regarding the decision by MSCI on the digital asset index on January 15 and the short-term disruptions caused by geopolitical risks.