Silver hits a new all-time high, and cryptocurrencies rise against the trend—December 10 Financial Morning Breakfast

Tuesday Market Overview: Precious metals performed strongly, with silver soaring to $60.8, setting a new historical record; gold fluctuated around the $4200 mark, quoted at $4206/oz, up 0.39%. In the US stock market, the three major indices showed mixed performance, with the Dow down 0.38%, the S&P 500 down 0.09%, and the Nasdaq up slightly by 0.13%. Market sentiment shifted to caution, with the 10-year US Treasury yield rising continuously to 4.19%, putting pressure on the stock market.

In the cryptocurrency sector, Bitcoin rose for three consecutive days, gaining 2.41% in 24 hours, currently trading at $92,830. Ethereum performed even better, up 6.38% in 24 hours, priced at $3,325.7, continuing its strong momentum. Precious metals and crypto assets led the gains, with Pan-American Silver rising over 11% and Americas Silver Corporation up more than 7%.

Pre-Fed Policy Market Volatility Intensifies

The US Department of Labor released October job openings data on Tuesday, showing vacancies increased from 7.66 million to 7.67 million, surpassing economists’ expectations of 7.12 million. Despite the increase in vacancies, recruitment activity slowed, and layoffs increased, reflecting ongoing signs of labor market softening. Amid the upcoming Fed rate decision, market expectations for policy direction widened, with the MOVE and VIX fear indices rising for the second consecutive day.

White House National Economic Council Director Hassett stated on Tuesday that the Fed currently has more than 25 basis points of easing room, implying that current economic data support further easing. However, divisions within the Fed are rare, with nearly half of the committee members holding reservations about rate cuts. Analysts suggest that the most likely strategy for Chair Powell is to implement a 25 basis point cut first, while adjusting the post-meeting statement to raise the threshold for subsequent easing, balancing internal disagreements.

Bank Warnings Signal Pressure on Consumer Markets

JPMorgan Chase’s head of consumer business warned on Tuesday during an event that signs of “slight fragility” are emerging in the consumer market. JPM also updated its full-year outlook, estimating credit card bad debt rates at around 3.3%, and projecting next year’s spending to reach $105 billion, above market expectations. As a result, JPM stock briefly rose to $318.8, approaching its all-time high, before experiencing a sharp correction, falling as much as 4.8% to $300.02, the largest decline among Dow components that day. JPM expects Q4 market business revenue growth to be at the lower end of 10%-20%, and investment banking revenue growth to be at the lower end of 0%-10%.

Tech Giants IPO Wave and AI Competition Heat Up

Sources reveal that a US billionaire’s space exploration company is pushing forward with its IPO plan, aiming to raise well over $30 billion. The company seeks an overall valuation of about $1.5 trillion in the IPO, with plans to go public as early as mid to late 2026. If successful, it will become the largest IPO in history. The company plans to use part of the proceeds to develop space data centers, with the IPO process mainly driven by progress in its satellite network business and new rocket development. In less than six years, the company’s valuation has increased more than 22-fold.

Meanwhile, social media platforms are developing new large language models as alternatives to existing models, codenamed “Avocado.” Originally scheduled for release at the end of this year, the model has been delayed to the first quarter of next year. Some insiders are concerned about a Chinese AI company’s adoption of a similar architecture and believe the company should adjust its strategic direction.

Global Markets and Key Observations

European stocks rose across the board, with Germany DAX 30 up 0.49%, France CAC 40 down 0.69%, and UK FTSE 100 down 0.03%. The US dollar index increased by 0.15% to 99.24, USD/JPY rose 0.62%, and EUR/USD fell 0.09%. Crude oil declined by 0.78% to $58.39 per barrel. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng night futures closed at 25,399 points, 35 points below yesterday’s close.

Market Outlook and Risk Warnings

Hedge fund giants suggest that if the bond market begins to question the independence of the next Fed chair, the central bank may be forced to shift toward quantitative easing to lower long-term borrowing costs. Bond investors are increasingly focused on fiscal sustainability and central bank independence issues; simply lowering the federal funds rate does not guarantee long-term rates will fall and may have the opposite effect.

In popular stocks, Google, Broadcom, and Tesla rose over 1%, while Meta fell more than 1%. Biotechnology, weight-loss drugs, and diversified banking sectors showed weak performance. Key upcoming events include the Fed FOMC rate decision, China’s November CPI data, and speeches by the Bank of England governor.