Gold towards $5000? What awaits gold prices in 2026

After a year 2025 full of surprises, attention is turning to gold price forecasts for the coming year, especially as the yellow metal has achieved historic jumps unseen before in the markets. In October 2025, gold reached a record high of $4,381 per ounce, later retreating toward $4,000, raising serious questions about whether this marks a new beginning or just a temporary correction.

Are we really heading to $5,000?

Gold price forecasts for 2026 from major banks align closely: continued rise. HSBC announced that gold prices could reach $5,000 per ounce in the first half of 2026, with an expected average of $4,600 for the entire year. Similarly, Bank of America targets the same at $5,000 but warns of possible short-term corrections. Goldman Sachs revised its forecast to $4,900, while JPMorgan goes slightly further, aiming for $5,055 by mid-2026.

The most common range among analysts extends between $4,800 and $5,000 as upper levels, with an average between $4,200 and $4,800. This consensus reflects growing confidence that gold price expectations are indeed pointing toward new record levels.

What is driving gold price expectations higher?

1( Unprecedented investment demand

Data from the World Gold Council tell a clear story: demand for gold continues to rise. In Q2 2025 alone, total demand reached 1,249 tons, up 3% annually, but value increased by about 45% to $132 billion. This means investors are not only buying more quantity but doing so at much higher prices.

Gold ETFs) recorded massive inflows, with assets under management rising to $472 billion, and holdings reaching 3,838 tons. These figures approach a historical peak estimated at 3,929 tons, indicating sustained strong buying pressure on gold in 2026.

Individual investors have also joined the movement: Bloomberg data shows that about 28% of new investors in developed markets added gold to their portfolios for the first time, and they hold their positions even during corrections.

2( Central banks keep buying

Central banks are not just watching prices from afar. They added 244 tons in Q1 2025, representing a 24% increase over the five-year quarterly average. Most notably, 44% of central banks worldwide now manage gold reserves, up from 37% in 2024.

China alone )via the People’s Bank of China### added over 65 tons, continuing this for the 22nd consecutive month. Turkey and India follow the same trend. This global central bank shift toward gold ###is considered by Council analysts the biggest factor supporting demand through the end of 2026###.

3### Supply scarcity and rising costs

While demand rises, supply does not keep pace. Mine production reached 856 tons in Q1 2025, a slight increase of only 1%. Worse, recycled gold decreased by 1% as owners prefer to hold onto their gold pieces expecting continued rise.

Extraction costs have surged sharply: the average cost to produce gold hit $1,470 per ounce in mid-2025, the highest in a decade. This means expanding production will be slow and expensive, deepening the gap between demand and supply.

( 4) Monetary policy: Fed cuts, world watches

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates in October 2025 by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75-4.00%, marking the second cut since December 2024. Market expectations price in a third cut of 25 basis points at the December 9-10, 2025 meeting.

BlackRock reports suggest the Fed may target an interest rate of 3.4% by the end of 2026 in a moderate scenario. Any additional cut reduces the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold and boosts its appeal.

The European Central Bank and Bank of Japan are also leaning toward easing policies, weakening local currencies and increasing gold’s attractiveness to foreign investors.

( 5) The dollar weakens, yields decline

The inverse relationship between gold and the dollar plays a key role. The dollar index has fallen about 7.64% from its peak in early 2025 to November 21, influenced by rate cut expectations. US 10-year bond yields fell from 4.6% in Q1 to 4.07% in November.

This double decline makes gold more attractive compared to dollar-denominated assets with low yields. Bank of America analysts see that continued trend with real yields stabilizing around 1.2% could strongly support gold price forecasts for 2026.

6 Global debt and financial concerns

Global public debt exceeds 100% of GDP, according to IMF data. These figures have driven investors toward safe havens. 42% of major hedge funds increased their gold holdings during Q3 2025, according to Bloomberg Economics.

7 Geopolitical tensions boost demand

Trade tensions between the US and China, along with Middle East conflicts, raised gold demand by 7% year-over-year in 2025. When tensions over Taiwan escalated in summer 2025, gold jumped to $3,400, then continued rising to $4,300 in October. This pattern suggests that any new crisis in 2026 could push gold price expectations even higher.

What does technical analysis say?

On daily charts, gold closed on November 21 at $4,065, but still adheres to the main upward trendline connecting lows around $4,050.

$4,000 is a strong and decisive support level. A clear daily break below could target $3,800 50% Fibonacci retracement, but this is a bearish scenario.

On the bullish side, $4,200 is the first strong resistance, and a breakout could open the way toward $4,400 and $4,680. The MACD remains above zero, confirming the overall bullish trend. The RSI at 50 indicates neutrality, possibly signaling a consolidation phase before a new move.

Gold price forecasts: risks and potential corrections

Despite optimism, some analysts warn of possible corrections. HSBC expects that upward momentum may weaken in the second half of 2026, with a correction toward $4,200 if investors take profits. However, they exclude a drop below $3,800 unless a major economic shock occurs.

Goldman Sachs warns that sustained prices above $4,800 could become a “price credibility test,” especially with weak industrial demand.

Nevertheless, JPMorgan and Deutsche Bank agree that gold has entered a new price zone that is difficult to break downward, thanks to a long-term strategic shift in investor outlook.

Gold price forecasts in the Middle East

The region has seen a clear increase in central bank reserves. The Central Bank of Egypt added one ton, and Qatar’s central bank added 3 tons in Q1 2025.

In Egypt, gold price forecasts could reach around 522,580 EGP per ounce by 2026, a 158.46% increase over current prices.

In Saudi Arabia and the UAE, if the target at $5,000 is achieved, this could translate to approximately 18,750-19,000 SAR and 18,375-19,000 AED per ounce. These figures assume stable exchange rates and continued global demand.

Summary: what are investors doing now?

Gold price forecasts for 2026 look bullish, but the path is not entirely certain. The main scenario points to continued rise supported by:

• Ongoing investment demand from individuals and funds
• Continued central bank purchases
• Scarcity of supply and rising costs
• Weak dollar and low yields
• Ongoing geopolitical and economic concerns

If real yields keep declining and the dollar remains weak, gold is poised to hit historic highs. Conversely, if inflation subsides and markets regain confidence, the metal may stabilize, preventing the achievement of the $5,000 target.

Investors eager to capitalize on this opportunity have multiple options: physical bullion purchases, investment funds, or trading CFDs to speculate on daily movements. The key is to understand risks well and manage them wisely.