Forex Markets Brace for NFP Void: GBP/USD Struggles Amid Data Drought

Sterling Momentum Fades on Weak CPI Reaction

GBP/USD stumbled lower on Wednesday, shedding roughly 0.67% to touch the 1.3060 support level. The Pound’s weakness accelerated despite the release of UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) data—disappointing readings that offered insufficient catalyst for cable recovery. Instead, buyers abandoned positions as the currency slipped to multi-week lows, marking the fourth consecutive session of losses.

NFP Forex Dynamics: Missing Data Signals Market Uncertainty

The broader forex landscape faces a critical gap ahead: October’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report has been shelved due to the federal government shutdown disrupting Labor Department data collection. This absence removes a key pillar from the economic calendar, leaving traders navigating blind spots until year-end.

Markets have already begun pricing in this uncertainty. Rate futures are shifting as traders reassess December rate-cut odds through the CME FedWatch Tool—odds of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut on December 10 have compressed to approximately 30%, down from prior expectations. The delayed NFP forex data means policymakers will operate with incomplete information heading into winter months.

September’s Backdated Jobs Report: A Temporary Placeholder

Thursday’s release of September’s NFP figures offers only a provisional roadmap. With October’s employment snapshot unavailable, the September data becomes a historical reference point rather than a forward-looking signal. Many observers expect this report to garner muted market attention, as traders fixate on the data vacuum that now extends through the end of the year.

Technical Outlook for GBP/USD

Cable’s chart structure reflects the absence of bullish conviction. Fresh weakness in sterling positions GBP/USD for continued downside exploration unless fresh catalysts emerge. The forex sell-off in the Pound underscores how macroeconomic uncertainty—particularly employment data gaps—influences major currency pairs.

The combination of weak UK inflation reaction and NFP forex complications suggests limited near-term upside for sterling until clearer employment trends resurface.