Is this wave a rebound or a reversal???

In early 2026, this wave of market movement is very likely to be a significant rebound; a reversal is unlikely.
You can refer to 2019, when the structure was quite typical: first a rapid decline, bringing sentiment to a freezing point, then suddenly a strong rebound. This kind of reverse rally is the easiest to deceive, especially for those who focus on liquidity and think "once money is pumped in, the altcoins will take off," leading to misjudgment and believing that the long-awaited altcoin season has finally arrived. But the result is often not a new high, but a lower high than before, followed by a truly difficult deleveraging phase.
From a technical perspective now, $BTC 's 50-week moving average is above $98,000–$100,000. If there is a rebound later, it will most likely test this level. If the price just touches it and then gets pushed back, it actually confirms that the market hasn't finished its move, and the downside space might be larger than many expect.
At the same time, several signals should be considered together: technical indicators are weakening, a death cross has appeared structurally; sentiment is starting to turn optimistic again; and liquidity in the fundamentals is not abundant. When these three points occur simultaneously, it often signals a phase turning point rather than the start of a bull market. Any rebound in early 2026 must be repeatedly validated against these three criteria.
The most dangerous part is that, historically, the real cause of large losses is not panic selling, but these seemingly stable rebounds. Many people, thinking the worst has passed and starting to add to their positions, get caught in secondary or even deeper declines afterward. From 2018 to 2019, such scenarios have played out repeatedly.
Following this logic, 2026 is likely to involve: first a technical rebound to restore confidence, then attracting a new wave of capital to form a plateau, and finally a more thorough downtrend. Those who are most vulnerable to being caught are often those who firmly believe that this time is different from before.

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