“Smart Money” is moving again? Israel may soon strike Iran

An hour ago, a mysterious account that previously predicted the pace of the Israel-Iran conflict struck again—
Recharged nearly $40,000, betting on “Israel will strike Iran within this month.”
Current market probability: 20%.
Why is the market watching this account?
Review its historical actions:
‍#Polymarket
June 10, 2025: Registered and deposited funds, heavily betting on “Israel will strike Iran”
3 days later, Israel launched a large-scale airstrike
→ The account made a profit of nearly $130,000
One week before the ceasefire agreement was announced, it reversed its position, betting “Israel is about to stop the strikes”
→ Gains over 200%
On the day of the ceasefire, the account emptied and transferred all assets
Now, it’s back.
And it’s only betting on one direction: Iran-related events.
Market probability remains at 20%, but the question is:
Is this just another coincidence, or an information gap?
Prediction markets never tell you the truth,
They only tell you—
Who is willing to bet real money at low probabilities.
When the same account repeatedly correctly predicts events before they happen,
The market will start to feel uneasy.
What to watch next is not the news,
But:
👉 Are there more “similar accounts” starting to enter the market simultaneously.