Analysis: Non-farm payroll data and tariff rulings have become the market focus, while the Venezuela incident is just noise.

On January 7, the US Treasury market reacted calmly to US intervention in Venezuela, with traders paying more attention to events such as the US December 2025 non-farm payroll report to be released on Friday. Since the release of the October and November 2025 non-farm payroll reports following the end of last year’s government shutdown, bond market investors have been waiting for the US Bureau of Labor Statistics to release a series of clear and reliable labor market data. Strategists at BMO Capital Markets believe that the employment data on Friday may be enough to restore investor confidence. Additionally, the US Supreme Court may issue a ruling on the legality of Trump’s global tariffs on Friday, the same day as the December non-farm payroll release—this could also have some impact on the market. US Treasuries approached an important milestone on Tuesday, with the 10-year Treasury yield reaching its highest level in nearly 9 months relative to the 2-year Treasury yield, indicating that traders are betting that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in 2026. (Jin10)