#比特币价格走势 Seeing this report from VanEck, I have to be honest—I've seen this logic too many times.

Does a drop in hash rate necessarily mean a bullish signal? Historical data shows a 65% probability of positive returns? It sounds convincing, but my on-chain experience tells me that these "historical patterns" are often just stories used by market manipulators to harvest retail investors. Data can speak, but data can also deceive.

Let me break it down: miners capitulate, small operators exit—these surface phenomena can indeed occur. But more importantly, how many hidden market players are still positioning themselves during this period? When the price drops to a certain level, who can guarantee it won't fall further? That 65% probability is based on the accumulation of multiple cycles since 2014, each with different backgrounds.

My experience is that Bitcoin's price movements are never determined by a single factor. When you see the narrative that "decreasing mining = bullish signal" spreading, be extra cautious—it's likely being used to create psychological expectations for a certain rally phase. True value investors don't go all-in based on just one technical indicator.

Be prepared for what needs to be guarded against, hold what needs to be held, but don't let any single argument brainwash you. The secret to surviving long in this market is always leaving room for doubt.