Moody's Forecast: Stablecoins Are Becoming Institutional "Digital Cash," with Investment Scale Potentially Exceeding $300 Billion by 2030

Moody’s latest 2026 cross-industry outlook report indicates that stablecoins are undergoing an identity shift. This is not hype within the crypto community but a professional judgment from global rating agencies: stablecoins have evolved from native crypto tools to core components of institutional market infrastructure, serving as “digital cash” in an increasingly tokenized financial system. What does this transformation mean? How will it develop in the future?

The Reimagining of Stablecoin Roles

From Crypto Tools to Financial Infrastructure

The shift in stablecoin identity is supported by data. According to recent reports, the total stablecoin market cap has surpassed $250 billion, with a compound annual growth rate of 65%. But more importantly, participant composition is changing. Moody’s points out that banks, asset managers, and market infrastructure providers have begun taking action, launching pilot projects in areas such as blockchain settlement networks, tokenization platforms, and digital custody.

These participants are not just playing with concepts—they are solving real problems. Their pilot initiatives aim clearly at simplifying issuance processes, optimizing post-trade processing, and improving intraday liquidity management. In other words, stablecoins are transitioning from being a tool within the crypto ecosystem to becoming infrastructure that connects traditional finance and blockchain.

New Uses for Stablecoins

Moody’s believes that in a tokenized financial system, stablecoins are evolving into tools for three key purposes:

• Liquidity management: enabling institutions to manage cash flows more efficiently
• Collateral transfer: simplifying cross-chain and cross-institution collateral movements
• Settlement tools: supporting programmable settlement and real-time transaction clearing

While these uses sound technical, at their core they are about one thing: making financial transactions faster, cheaper, and more transparent.

Current Progress in Institutional Adoption

Scale and Scope of Pilot Projects

According to Moody’s observations, institutional-level pilot projects are no longer small-scale proof-of-concepts but involve systemic exploration across multiple financial sectors. Banks are testing blockchain settlement networks, asset managers are building tokenization platforms, and market infrastructure providers are deploying digital custody systems.

The common feature of these pilots is their shared direction: large-scale tokenization and programmable settlement. This is not the effort of a single institution but a collective industry movement.

Investment Outlook

Moody’s provides a specific figure: by 2030, as companies build large-scale tokenization and programmable settlement infrastructure, investment in digital finance and infrastructure is expected to exceed $300 billion. What does this projection imply?

This indicates that institutional enthusiasm for tokenized finance is heating up, further driving the development of stablecoins and related infrastructure.

What Does This Mean

Market Impact

From the latest news, Moody’s assessment reflects a reality: stablecoins are no longer fringe products in the crypto market but are becoming tools that traditional finance must pay attention to. This shift has several important implications:

• Demand for stablecoins will shift from retail-driven to institution-driven
• Use cases for stablecoins will move from trading pairs to infrastructure
• Regulatory environments for stablecoins may become clearer and more friendly

Risks to Watch

It is worth noting that related information highlights the deep linkage between stablecoins and U.S. Treasuries. Currently, the total U.S. debt exceeds $37 trillion, with debt-to-GDP ratio at 123%. About 80.2% of major stablecoin reserves are U.S. Treasuries, meaning that risks associated with U.S. debt could directly transmit to stablecoins. Moody’s optimistic outlook depends on the premise that U.S. debt risks remain manageable.

Summary

Moody’s 2026 outlook sketches the future trajectory of stablecoins: from crypto tools to institutional financial infrastructure, evolving into “digital cash.” This is not just an upgrade of stablecoin identity but a new phase of integration between blockchain technology and traditional finance. By 2030, with an expected investment exceeding $300 billion, this trend has gained recognition among global financial institutions.

However, the realization of this promising outlook depends on two key factors: first, the improvement of technological infrastructure (tokenization platforms, settlement networks, etc.); second, macroeconomic stability (especially U.S. debt risks). The current period is a critical window for observing the development of these two factors.