Recently, Ethereum's performance has indeed attracted a lot of attention. Yesterday, ETH surged to the 3308 level, and the discussions in trading communities immediately heated up—there are all kinds of opinions. Some ask if this is the beginning of a bull market, some want to follow the trend and buy high, and others are debating whether to add to their positions. Let me be straightforward and share a thought: this rally is fundamentally different from the start of a true bull market; it’s more like a carefully designed liquidity trap.

First, let me mention a well-verified pattern in trading systems—liquidity hunting. The logic behind it is actually simple: major players deliberately create a false breakout upwards, aiming to wipe out all short positions with stop-loss orders near key price levels. Once these forced liquidations occur and the funds exit, the price immediately reverses and falls back. The whole process is usually clean, without much chaos.

The recent high of 3308 for ETH is a textbook example of this. Opening the 4-hour and 1-hour charts, you can clearly see how the price suddenly spikes upward, precisely breaking through the 3300 barrier. Coincidentally, just above this level is a concentration of stop-loss orders from shorts—these orders get triggered one after another, forcing a large amount of capital to admit defeat and exit. Then, you witness a dramatic scene: the price quickly shrinks in volume and retraces, with the entire reversal happening swiftly and without delay.

Why do I say this isn’t a genuine breakout? A straightforward indicator is enough—trading volume. When ETH hit 3300 yesterday, the volume was nearly half of what it was during the previous rally. This discrepancy speaks volumes. To use an analogy: it’s like a sprinter running very fast on a straight track, but during the final sprint, they suddenly run out of steam; you wouldn’t believe they could cross the finish line. In my trading experience, “a hard push without volume support” is always a sign of manipulation by the big players—either to lure retail traders into chasing high or to quietly offload. I’ve never seen an exception.

Looking at the overall market situation now, you can feel that awkward atmosphere. On the 15-minute candlestick chart, the price repeatedly tests high levels but never confirms a breakout with a solid candle. These “fake bullish candles” keep appearing, actually preparing the energy for a subsequent decline. If you still hold the idea that “any pullback is a buying opportunity,” I need to warn you—this mindset is exactly within the scope of the main players’ expectations.

Many retail traders fall into this misconception: seeing the price rise, they want to chase; seeing a pullback, they want to add to their positions. In the end, they wear down most of their capital through repeated shakeouts. The big players need exactly such counterparts. They control the capital advantage and information advantage, allowing them to precisely manipulate the price within a certain range. Every oscillation is a psychological harvest for retail traders.

To survive in such a market environment, the core logic is actually simple: watch volume to confirm breakouts, analyze technical structures for support and resistance, and follow capital flows to understand the true intentions of the main players. Don’t let short-term price fluctuations hijack your judgment. Those seemingly rapid breakouts are often the most illusory.

If you’re still hesitating about whether to buy at high levels or consider adding on dips, I suggest you think through this logical chain carefully before acting. Otherwise, when the reversal truly happens, your principal might just become numbers in someone else’s account. This is not alarmist talk; it’s a lesson the market keeps repeating.