The US economic growth rate will also lead Korea this year; attention should be paid to investment and exchange rate fluctuations.

Source: TokenPost Original Title: US Economic Growth Rate Outpaces Korea Again This Year…Attention on Investment and Exchange Rate Fluctuations Original Link: Global investment banks predict that the US economic growth rate will be higher than Korea’s this year, widening the gap between the two countries. This could impact the won/dollar exchange rate and foreign investment flows.

As the US economic growth rate is expected to remain higher than Korea’s this year, the growth rate gap presented by global investment banks is widening again. Consequently, attention is increasingly focused on the potential impacts on exchange rates and investment flows across the economy.

According to the International Financial Center’s aggregation of forecasts from eight major global investment banks as of December 2025, the US real Gross Domestic Product(GDP) growth rate for this year is projected to be an average of 2.3%. This is a 0.2 percentage point increase from a month earlier. The main institutions have collectively revised upward their growth outlooks, with Goldman Sachs raising it from 2.5% to 2.7%, Nomura from 2.4% to 2.6%, and others like Citibank and UBS also adjusting upward.

In contrast, Korea’s expected growth rate remained relatively unchanged during the same period. Major investment banks maintained an average of 2.0%, with some institutions raising their forecasts, but there were also downward revisions like Goldman Sachs lowering it from 2.2% to 1.9%, which affected the overall average. Bank of America adjusted from 1.6% to 1.9%, and HSBC from 1.7% to 1.8%, but Goldman Sachs’ downward revision had a notable impact on the total figure.

As a result, the growth rate gap between Korea and the US this year is 0.3 percentage points, wider than the 0.1 percentage point difference predicted at the end of November last year. However, considering that the actual annual growth rate forecast last year was 2.1% for the US and 1.1% for Korea, with a gap of 1.0 percentage points, this year’s relative difference appears to be somewhat smaller.

This growth rate gap also influences the foreign exchange market. Typically, when the US growth rate and interest rates are higher than Korea’s, demand for the dollar increases, which can lead to a rise in the won/dollar exchange rate. This may trigger capital outflows from companies and foreign investors. Currently, the US benchmark interest rate is 3.50–3.75% annually, while Korea’s is 2.50%, maintaining a 1.25 percentage point difference. This gap has persisted since July 2022.

The Bank of Korea also recognizes the impact of economic disparities on the exchange rate. In a press conference on January 2, the Governor of the Bank of Korea mentioned, “If Korea’s growth rate increases and structural reforms progress, the exchange rate issue can also be resolved,” emphasizing the importance of structural approaches. In the short term, policy responses such as supply and demand adjustments are needed to stabilize the foreign exchange market.

This trend is likely to continue for some time. While the US maintains a policy of tax cuts, increased investment, and structural growth centered on new industries like artificial intelligence, concerns remain that Korea’s growth may be limited due to sluggish domestic demand and delayed structural reforms despite a recovery in exports. As a result, there will likely be increased calls for measures related to the won’s value and foreign investment inflows.