At 9:30 PM Beijing time on January 9th, the US Non-Farm Payrolls report will be released. Why is this data so important? Because it directly influences the direction of the crypto market in the coming period.

Let's first see what the market expectations are now. The December non-farm employment increase is expected to be 73,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.5%, and average hourly earnings rising by 0.3% month-over-month. These numbers seem ordinary, but market interpretations make them complex.

An interesting phenomenon in the crypto market is that the quality of non-farm data is often "interpreted inversely." What if the data is below expectations? Weak employment growth and rising unemployment are understood by the market as signs of economic slowdown, potentially forcing the Federal Reserve to accelerate rate cuts. For the crypto circle, this is usually a bullish signal that pushes prices higher. Conversely, if the data is strong, with robust employment growth and falling unemployment, the market might think the Fed doesn't need to cut rates so urgently and could maintain high interest rates. Under this expectation, crypto assets tend to be sold off.

This actually reflects a basic logic: low-interest-rate environments are friendly to risk assets, while high-interest-rate environments are more suppressive.

However, looking at this non-farm report alone is not enough. The macro situation affecting the crypto market is indeed very complex right now.

There are disagreements within the Federal Reserve. Some officials recently stated that the rate policy is already "significantly restrictive," implying that it might be time to consider rate cuts. More aggressive voices suggest that there could be over 100 basis points of rate cuts in 2026—that is, possibly four to five rate cuts throughout the year. This dovish stance is clearly different from other Fed officials' attitudes, making market expectations for interest rate movements more sensitive. Any economic data could trigger the market to reassess its expectations of Fed policy.

Therefore, the release of this non-farm data is crucial for the upcoming market trend. The key is not just how impressive the numbers are, but how the market will use them to reassess the Fed's policy space.

Let's wait and see—this report could bring significant waves to the crypto circle.