#比特币相对表现与市场现象 Looking at the recent movement of the BCMI indicator, a familiar feeling arises. I have experienced the bottom formation process in both 2019 and 2023. When the indicator dropped to the 0.25-0.35 range, the level of market despair was truly impressive. Now, revisiting this data, I realize we are repeating an ancient pattern.

What is truly worth noting is not the decline of the indicator itself, but the detail emphasized by CryptoQuant—that this is not merely a price correction, but a structural reset of on-chain momentum. What does this mean? It indicates a change in the behavioral logic of market participants. I have seen too many people buy the dip during simple corrections, only to be caught off guard. Structural reset is different; it involves a shift in the attitude of large holders and a reversal in on-chain capital flows, which is the real signal of a turning point.

Although BCMI has not yet reached the historical bottom, the phrase "downward transition phase" is the most valuable reference. Transition means there is still room for further lows. From historical cycles, I see that this phase often tests patience rather than trading strategies. Those who endure will see it as the starting point of the next cycle; those rushing to buy the dip often become the bagholders.

Time will tell us the answer, just as it always does.