#链上应用与预测市场 Seeing Vitalik's prediction, my first reaction is that it's both familiar and unfamiliar. The familiarity comes from hearing this kind of "technology will eventually solve everything" rhetoric too many times in this circle; the unfamiliarity is because this time it sounds particularly weighty.

It reminds me of the ICO boom in 2017, when many projects touted "smart contracts will change the world" and raised tens of millions. But what was the result? The DAO incident, Parity wallet vulnerabilities, countless "million-dollar contract bugs"—these made us realize a fact: the fragility of code is not a bug, but a destiny. Many projects that failed back then were doomed by this fate.

But what Vitalik talks about—bug-free code—is essentially about formal verification and provable correctness. This is not a fantasy. Over the past few years, from the resource model of Move language, to Rust's memory safety mechanisms, to the advancement of zero-knowledge proofs on-chain—we are indeed gradually approaching this goal. The only cost is longer development cycles and performance sacrifices in certain scenarios.

The key question is: by the 2030s, will this set of technologies truly become mainstream? Or will it only exist in a few applications that demand the highest level of security? I lean towards the latter. Looking at the history of prediction markets, we know that there is often a gap called "economic incentives" between technological breakthroughs and practical implementation. Bug-free code may become possible, but whether the market can accept the cost of using it is another matter.

In this cycle, I am more concerned about who can survive this shift.