Bitcoin's current rally has entered a full-throttle phase. The momentum indicator has surged to 80, driven by the influx of $697 million in ETF funds during the first week of 2026. This institutional force has pushed the price from $89,000 straight up to over $94,000, with a short-term increase of nearly 7%.

But there's a detail that's easy to overlook: reaching a momentum of 80 doesn't usually mean the market is just beginning. The last time this level was hit was in early October of last year, right before a cyclical high. So, the number 80 is more like saying "it's very strong now" rather than "it's still early."

Think of the momentum indicator as a thermometer: below 20, the market is freezing cold; around 50, it's just right; between 60 and 80, there's a clear acceleration; over 80, it's getting hot. The recent surge of ETF funds has significantly amplified short-term buying, and the rebound has been quite fierce, indicating that institutions are still exerting effort. However, experience tells us that hitting 80 on the momentum isn't a signal to "add more confidently"; rather, it's a warning to "be cautious," especially when the overall trend hasn't fully stabilized. It's also crucial to watch whether trading volume can keep up and whether funds might suddenly slow down. Strength doesn't necessarily mean safety—this stage is better suited for observing rhythm changes rather than blindly chasing highs.

There are not many Bitcoins available on exchanges for immediate sale. The supply ratio has fallen to 0.1376, which is nearly the lowest since 2018. This figure is significantly below the historical range where ratios of 0.14 to 0.15 often led to a top. The supply is tightening, but this also means both upside potential and downside risks are being amplified.