#比特币相对表现与市场现象 BCMI continues to decline and has now broken below the equilibrium line, a signal that warrants attention. Comparing with historical cycles, the bottoms in 2019 and 2023 both formed in the 0.25-0.35 range. Although the current price has not yet reached that level, the downward trend is clear.

The key is how to interpret the nature of this adjustment. If it is merely a routine correction, on-chain momentum should remain resilient. However, the structural decline of BCMI indicates that the market is undergoing a deeper reset—prices and on-chain activity are declining in tandem, which usually signals longer-term pressure.

From a data perspective, we are not yet in an extremely pessimistic phase (there is still some distance from the historical bottom range), but we have indeed entered a downward transition period. In the short term, it is more meaningful to observe whale movements and capital flows—if institutional investors continue to net inflow during this phase, it may reflect an early positioning for the bottom; otherwise, caution is advised.

The current state is more like a transition from cooling down to hibernation, not a collapse, but it does show early signs of a bear market.