2026-01-08 08:25:31

The weekend geopolitical shock event was originally seen as a trigger for safe-haven flows. But as the situation moved toward a compromise, gold prices responded by falling sharply from high levels, failing to hold the 4500 level—this technical break is already a clear and unmistakable signal of trend reversal.

**Geopolitical situation rapidly shifts, safe-haven premium dissipates**

In simple terms, once the conflict cools down, gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset drops straight away. The U.S. actions ending with the opponent’s compromise not only eliminate short-term safe-haven buying but also indirectly exert strategic pressure on regions like Iran and Russia. As a result, calls for peace in the Russia-Ukraine conflict increase, global tensions ease quickly, and the safe-haven premium of gold declines accordingly.

Looking at the crude oil market, expectations for accelerated entry of oil from Venezuela are growing stronger, while OPEC+ maintains its current production policy, leading to a loosening of global oil supply. The linked effect of commodity inflation also weakens, directly reducing gold’s inflation hedge support.

More critically, the dollar liquidity situation. The U.S. consolidates trade dominance through geopolitical maneuvers, giving short-term support to the dollar index. By the midday of January 8, the dollar index had risen back to around 102.5. This means the attractiveness of gold priced in other currencies has decreased, and the upside potential for gold prices is being suppressed.

**Dual pressure from funds and technicals, top formation is now certain**

By 2025, gold has already gained nearly $2000, with long positions earning substantial profits. As the year-end approaches, the urgency to lock in profits grows. According to CFTC’s positioning data, the attitude of large funds is also shifting. This wave of profit-taking is surging, directly igniting a wave of selling.

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

18 Likes

Reward
18
7
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

GateUser-bd883c58

· 8h ago

4500 broke, and it's broken. I saw this wave needing adjustment long ago. The profit margin is right there, everyone wants to run. Hey, do you really think the geopolitical cooling can reverse risk aversion so quickly? I think it's too early to say. Gold surged directly from $2000, and with the dollar strengthening, it's really hard to hold back. Short-term bears are going to celebrate. Where's the promised inflation hedge? With loose supply, everything is screwed. This logic really can't stand the test. Compromise? Ha, just political games. Do you really think the long-term logic of gold has changed? I doubt it. Those big players at CFTC are fleeing, and retail investors are the ones taking the fall. It's better to stay on the sidelines for now. The dollar at 102.5, back to that awkward position. How long this rebound can last, really hard to say.

View OriginalReply0

PanicSeller69

· 8h ago

Oh my, this wave of breaking below 4500 really leaves no suspense; I saw it coming long ago. Watching the big players keep dumping, it's satisfying, but how much further can this rebound go? When geopolitical tensions ease, gold loses its appeal. This logic isn't wrong. The dollar is rising again, and now other cryptocurrencies' bulls should also calm down. The wave of profit-taking is here; who dares to buy the dip next? Don’t ask me how I know; the holdings data has already shown the problem. A $2000 increase is already satisfying enough; it's time for everyone to wake up. OPEC easing oil supply, and gold's anti-inflation card is also losing its strength. Short-term dollar support is crucial; this is the straw that broke the camel's back for gold prices.

View OriginalReply0

GasFeeCrybaby

· 01-10 12:03

Oh my, the gold dropped so quickly? I thought I could hold on a bit longer, but it broke through 4500 just like that... Same old story, as soon as geopolitical tensions ease, no one wants safe-haven assets anymore, and everyone is waiting to buy the dip. The big players taking profits are once again harvesting retail investors. It's always like this, and it’s really a bit annoying. The US dollar is rising again? Then us small retail investors are definitely going to have a tough time for a while.

View OriginalReply0

MemeCoinSavant

· 01-08 08:55

ngl the geopolitical copium was never gonna hold... soon as they started negotiating, gold's safe-haven thesis just evaporated lmao. classic case of priced-in euphoria meeting reality

Reply0

OnChainArchaeologist

· 01-08 08:55

Gold has fallen so much, where is the safe haven everyone promised? Once geopolitical tensions ease, the truth is exposed. Compromise is just compromise; the safe haven premium instantly evaporates. It's really a pity if you didn't catch this rhythm. The dollar has returned to 102.5, and the attractiveness of gold priced in other currencies is dropping sharply. With such high enthusiasm for profit-taking, no wonder the selling is so fierce, and the market has dispersed. Breaking 4500 is just that—broken. There's nothing much to say about the technicals; let’s just see a reversal if it happens. Oil supply is abundant, and inflation linkage has weakened, so gold lacks support points. This wave of bulls probably has already been laughing happily; a $2000 increase is enough to feel comfortable. When big funds change their attitude, you know something's about to happen. The CFTC positions tell everything. The key is still the strong dollar; this thing directly impacts gold prices the most. It's called profit-taking in a nice way, or dumping in a harsh way—either way, the result is the same.

View OriginalReply0

AirdropHarvester

· 01-08 08:53

Compromising means there's no hope left; safe-haven assets are fleeing faster than rabbits. The recent pullback in gold prices was actually overdue. Who wouldn't want to lock in profits after a $2000 rise? If the 4500 level breaks, it breaks. Where's the next support? The dollar returning to 102.5 still needs to be watched. In the short term, gold really has no more room for imagination. OPEC's oil supply is easing, and the story of gold fighting inflation is losing momentum. The speed at which geopolitical risks are fading is a bit surprising... I thought it would last longer. With the dollar's strength, other currencies' gold prices are even less attractive. To be honest, the bulls have made enough profit this round. When it's time to run, you should run. Now, whether to bottom fish depends on who has better luck.

View OriginalReply0

FallingLeaf

· 01-08 08:29

Oh my, it broke 4500. This wave of cutting losses must have been quite a lot... The risk aversion premium disappeared instantly, and with geopolitical tensions easing, gold immediately weakened. I should have seen through this trick long ago. The dollar is really strong at 102.5, and the attractiveness of other currencies priced in gold is indeed declining. The long positions that gained nearly two thousand points are probably all thinking about fleeing now. Taking profits and closing positions this time was really ruthless.

View OriginalReply0