From a higher time frame perspective, Bitcoin has been weakening since losing the weekly trend. This point must be understood clearly because it determines how much you can profit during a rebound. We look for short-term rebound opportunities through 3D divergence, with a target possibly around 102K. Currently, this level has been reached halfway. But don’t get it wrong— a rebound does not mean a reversal.

Below 102K, Bitcoin’s macro structure remains bearish. It has been below this area for 9 weeks now. As long as this structure is not repaired, we must acknowledge that BTC is in a new trend cycle, and the specific bottom boundary has not yet formed or been tested. If it continues to stay below the weekly moving average, this trend could be downward, which means Bitcoin might fall to even lower levels this year. This judgment was established in early October at the 126K high point based on weekly and bi-weekly bearish divergence. In the short term, we can attempt to catch rebounds during the decline, but long- to medium-term buying opportunities will only be considered when our long-term signals appear—just like we analyzed a few days ago.