#期权市场 The Christmas holiday move has long been anticipated by institutions. Over 50% of options positions are waiting to expire, with implied volatility dropping more than 5% across the board, and even over 10% in the short to medium term — this is not a coincidence, it’s a planned retreat.

Having navigated this market for many years, I’ve seen too many people get caught off guard during "calm periods." Large institutions preemptively shift positions, volatility plummets sharply, and trading volume thins out. These signals clearly tell retail investors: there are no opportunities ahead, only traps.

Many will look at this "low expectations" and think about buying the dip or shorting, but what is the truth? Low volatility means cheaper options, and cheap things are often tools used to lure you into the trap. The period around expiration and settlement is often the favorite window for big players to harvest — because most people are on holiday, only the greedy are still watching the market.

My simple advice: treat these two weeks as a market holiday, and you should take a break too. Not trading is not a loss; avoiding being harvested is the biggest gain. After New Year’s Day, when volatility starts to climb again, then look for real opportunities.

Living long is a hundred times more important than living fast.