2026-01-08 12:26:24

I recently came across some interesting market forecast data. Regarding Bitcoin's performance in January, there are significant differences in market opinions on whether prices will rise or fall.

The more optimistic outlook suggests about a 29% chance of reaching $100,000. However, if the expectation is lowered to $95,000, the market support increases noticeably to 60%. This indicates that most people are still optimistic about a rebound at the beginning of the year, but their expectations for the specific high are somewhat cautious.

From another perspective, risk is also considered. The probability of falling to $85,000 is 45%, and dropping to $80,000 is 20%. These figures reflect that there are still many bearish voices in the market, but expectations of extreme declines are relatively weak.

Overall, the current market consensus on Bitcoin's January performance remains mildly bullish, but disagreements do exist. Investors should still be prepared for risk management.

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

22 Likes

Reward
22
7
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

NoodlesOrTokens

· 01-11 12:23

I'll say it directly, these data are a bit confusing to me. 60% support 95,000, which is actually more attractive than 29% for 100,000, indicating that everyone is a bit hesitant inside. Wait, 45% drop to 85,000? Doesn't that mean there's nearly a 50% chance of breaking the level? It doesn't feel so reassuring. Mildly bullish? I feel like everyone is just betting on roughly the same price, no one wants to go all in, that's the real situation. To put it simply, you still have to make your own decisions. Don't rely too much on these probabilities. If the market were so easy to predict, there wouldn't be any retail investors.

View OriginalReply0

FlashLoanPhantom

· 01-10 17:48

60% support. The number 95,000 is quite interesting, indicating that everyone actually has a bottom line and is not blindly optimistic.

View OriginalReply0

LiquidationWatcher

· 01-08 12:48

95,000 versus 100,000, the probability difference is double. Honestly, this data is a bit funny. 45% dropping to 85,000? Doesn't that mean more than half of the people haven't completely given up on the market? This market is really tangled. A mild bullish outlook is enough, no need to fuss. What was promised as risk management is actually just gambling on luck. It's all a probability game. I'm already tired of playing this set.

View OriginalReply0

PanicSeller69

· 01-08 12:39

95,000 only has 60% support? Isn't that just the market lacking confidence? --- There's a 45% chance it could drop to 85,000. What does this data indicate? People are still a bit hesitant. --- It's both cautiously optimistic and emphasizing risk management. No one dares to bet on 100,000. --- Looking at it this way, January's market is like a coin flip. Anyway, I'll wait until it drops to 80,000 before jumping in. --- This probability distribution... feels like 95,000 is the ceiling. Don't overthink it.

View OriginalReply0

ChainDetective

· 01-08 12:38

The 95,000 level feels like the true expectation, while 100,000 is probably just influencers calling the shots. Betting on 95,000 still feels a bit uncertain; the risk at 85,000 seems more solid. This data essentially indicates that everyone is betting on a rebound, but no one dares to go all in. Looking at this probability distribution, it seems January will be a volatile month. A 60% support level doesn't mean stability; it actually shows that the consensus is quite fragile. Wait, dropping from 45% to 85,000—does that mean the risk isn't that small? I'm a bit curious about how this data was generated; it feels like someone is guiding public opinion. The mild bullish outlook sounds a bit stiff; it’s clearly a gambler’s mentality. Good risk management = possibly losing money, to put it politely.

View OriginalReply0

MetaverseLandlord

· 01-08 12:33

A position of 95,000 feels more realistic, 100,000 is a bit too idealistic. --- The data showing a 45% drop to 8.5K is a bit scary; still, you should stay cautious. --- It seems everyone is betting on a rebound but not daring to bet too big... This feels quite familiar. --- The data sounds good, but who really knows? Anyway, I’m keeping a small position to stay safe. --- Mild bullishness is just a safe phrase; honestly, no one is really confident. --- A 60% chance of 95,000? Based on what? Feels like everyone is just guessing. --- The biggest fear is that 20% extreme drop; although the probability is small, if it happens, it’s game over. --- Optimistic about a rebound at the beginning of the year but keeping expectations realistic, very official haha. --- The median thinking players’ voting results, I still go with my gut feeling. --- The 8 to 8.5K range feels like the real acid test.

View OriginalReply0

screenshot_gains

· 01-08 12:28

95,000 is an interesting number, more realistic than 100,000. Basically, everyone is scared, and no one really dares to go all-in on 100,000. 85,000 also has a 45% chance? That's a bit risky. Rebound is rebound, but you still need to be cautious. This wave of market movement is like Schrödinger's rise and fall; no one can predict it. The data looks good, but the wallet is the real deal. Moderately bullish? Sounds like saying "maybe."

View OriginalReply0