#密码资产动态追踪 Staring at the market chart for an hour, BTC's technical structure is becoming increasingly clear. Let's get straight to the point: in the short term, a bearish pattern has already formed, but there are variables brewing at this juncture.

**Current Price Status and Moving Average Resistance**

The current price is around 89,899.2, and the key point is—price has consecutively broken below MA7, MA30, EMA7, and EMA30, which are critical moving averages. More painfully, these moving averages themselves form a typical bearish alignment. Looking upward, the first strong resistance is around 90,160 (EMA7), and further up is the psychological level at 90,500.

**Bollinger Bands and Momentum Exhaustion Signals**

The price is now tightly hugging the lower Bollinger Band, with the middle band (90,685) forming a strong dynamic resistance. In simple terms, unless it recovers back above the middle band, it's hard to talk about a trend reversal. The MACD signals are even more interesting—although DIFF and DEA are still above zero (indicating the longer-term trend hasn't fully turned bearish), the MACD histogram is positive but gradually flattening. Coupled with the price declining simultaneously, this suggests a "hidden bearish divergence," with bullish momentum clearly waning.

**On-Chain and Macro Cross-Verification**

Technical analysis alone isn't enough. We need to monitor whether the net inflow of BTC into exchanges continues to increase (a sign of selling pressure), and also keep an eye on whale addresses' movements. If the price is falling while whales are accumulating, it could be a "bear trap," so caution is advised. Additionally, recent macro events (such as the credit crisis in traditional financial systems) may temporarily boost volatility in risk assets, but the long-term logic is to catalyze more funds to allocate into non-sovereign, censorship-resistant assets like BTC.

**My Trading Approach**

Currently, my judgment is leaning towards short-term bearishness, but not a complete dead cat bounce. The ideal entry point for short positions, or the observation point for existing shorts, is when the price rebounds to the 90,150–90,500 zone and shows signs of resistance and stagnation.

What would make me turn bullish? Only one signal: a strong volume breakout on the 1-hour candlestick chart that breaks above and stabilizes above 90,500, overcoming the entire cluster of moving averages. At that point, I will reassess the situation.

The market is accumulating the power for a new wave of volatility. The key levels are already marked: support at 89,500 below, resistance at 90,500 above. Breaking either of these levels will give a clear direction for the next move. $BTC