U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls data is about to be released, and this time the outcome is almost a foregone conclusion—markets widely expect federal employment to decrease by over 200,000 jobs. The bad news is on the table, but the real test is still ahead.

The key issue is not whether the data will decline, but whether the actual drop will exceed everyone's expectations. This gap will determine the flow of funds.

Currently, the market is divided into two camps. One believes that since the bad news has already been digested, the official release might trigger a technical rebound—so-called "bad news is fully priced in." If the actual numbers aren't as terrifying, we might see a short-term rally. The other camp is more cautious, worried that worse-than-expected data could trigger a chain reaction of panic, causing funds to instinctively flee all risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

In recent weeks, the market has been digesting signals of economic slowdown. Therefore, a negative report that meets expectations may not trigger a sustained plunge; instead, it could lead to a short-term rebound as the "shoe drops." But the risk here is: if the data is far worse than expected, technical analysis will instantly become invalid, and the market could enter a pure panic-selling mode.

From another perspective, the outcome of the non-farm data is already certain. The real trading opportunity lies in observing how the market reacts to this number. If the response is relatively calm, it indicates that risks have been fully absorbed; if there is excessive panic, it’s time to switch immediately to a defensive strategy.

At such moments, maintaining clear judgment is more important than any prediction.