The stablecoin market is already decided

Look at those colored bands in the Artemis chart - USDT (teal) and USDC (blue) aren't just dominant, they're the entire visual while everything else barely registers.

Total supply hit $308B+ with USDT and USDC controlling ~85% of the market. The percentage isn't what matters though - it's about who owns the rails.

Daily transfer volume shows the dominance clearly:

> USDT: $100B+ daily
> USDC: $20-50B daily

That volume represents years of accumulated infrastructure:

> Exchange base pairs
> DeFi integrations
> Liquidity pools
> Protocol-level adoption built over time

New stablecoins aren't competing on better technology anymore. They're competing against infrastructure that took years and billions to build, which changes the entire competitive dynamic.

Hundreds of stablecoins are listed across aggregators, but only around 10 ever crossed $1B in supply.

To scale past that threshold, you need all of these simultaneously:

> Exchanges listing you as base pairs
> DeFi protocols integrating your contracts
> Market maker capital committed
> User trust in peg stability

By the time you're building that from scratch, USDT ($187B) and USDC ($75B) already own the infrastructure, and every new integration they add makes the moat even deeper.

The paradox nobody talks about: massive market growth actually strengthens the duopoly instead of creating space for competition.

@Citi 's $1.6T by 2030 projection breaks down like this:

🔸 Institutions want compliance → USDC
🔸 Traders need liquidity → USDT
🔸 DeFi protocols integrate what users hold → Both

The 2025 growth numbers tell the story:

> USDC: +73%
> USDT: +36%
> Combined dominance: Still 85%

USDC grew significantly faster, but this isn't market fragmentation - it's the duopoly shifting toward the regulated player while maintaining combined control.

The handful of stablecoins that made it past $1B found different niches rather than competing directly:

> USDe ($6.3B) – DeFi yield vehicle
> PYUSD ($3.6B) – PayPal onboarding
> USDS ($6.3B) – Maker ecosystem
> RLUSD ($1.3B) – Ripple integration

None are taking market share from the top two - they're solving problems the duopoly doesn't optimize for or simply doesn't care about.

Here's what really matters though: @tether and @circle hold over $200B in US Treasury exposure, which is more than most countries hold and creates a powerful political feedback loop.

> Washington wants sustained Treasury demand
> Government supports stablecoin legitimization
> Regulatory clarity benefits established players
> Market concentrates further around incumbents

This isn't speculation about what might happen - it's how infrastructure markets have always worked throughout history.

Think about water utilities, power grids, and payment rails. They all consolidated around 2-3 dominant providers because users don't choose based on innovation or features.

Users choose what's liquid everywhere they need it, what works reliably when they need it to, and what doesn't break under stress during market volatility.

The @artemis chart is showing you a mature infrastructure market forming in real-time. Those colored bands aren't shifting proportionally as total supply grows - they're setting into place as permanent layers that will define the market structure for years.

By 2030 we'll hit somewhere between $1.6-1.9T in total supply according to Citi's projections, and USDT plus USDC will still control 80% or more of that expanded market.

The structure's already set. Growth from here just expands what's already been built.

Data: DefiLlama, Citi GPS Stablecoins 2030 Report, Jan 2026