ETH one-hour K-line is currently in a stalemate, with the price fluctuating within the 3052 to 3300 range, a span of over 200 points. It seems there are no major movements. But a close watch reveals the issue— the current price has been firmly pressed below the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, while the upper and lower bands are gradually tightening. This usually signals that volatility is about to increase and a direction is about to be chosen.

What does the indicator say? The blue line on the MACD shows signs of rising below the zero line and is about to cross above the yellow line. At first glance, it looks like there’s a positive change, but in reality, it’s more like a rebound and pause during a downtrend, with clearly insufficient strength. Looking at the volume, the volume during the rebound phase is not supporting it— a typical low-volume rebound, which has little reference value.

In terms of pattern, the price has fallen from 3300 all the way down. Even during rebounds, it cannot break through the middle Bollinger Band, clearly showing weakness. Under such a trend, the retracement range becomes a good opportunity for shorting. How to operate specifically? When the rebound reaches the 3155-3165 zone, you can gradually establish short positions. This area is not only a previous small platform support but also close to the Bollinger Band middle pressure level, offering a relatively favorable risk-reward ratio.

Where to place the stop-loss? Firmly above 3205. Once this level is effectively broken, the short-term downtrend structure will be broken, and you should cut losses and close positions.

What about the target levels? The first target is around the previous low near 3080, and the second target is 3050. The crypto market is now clearly dominated by bears, with rebounds lacking strength. Don’t expect to catch the bottom; the real opportunity comes when the rebound weakens. Follow the plan, strictly control risks, and leave the rest to the market to decide.