Tonight at 21:30, the non-farm employment data will be released. Many people think this is just economic data, but for the crypto world, this is a critical moment for a turnaround.

The counterintuitive part is this: bad economic news can actually ignite a crypto rally. Why? Because weak employment data → the market starts betting that the Federal Reserve will accelerate rate cuts → liquidity is suddenly released → risk assets like Bitcoin tend to surge. The reverse is also true: strong data means stable unemployment rates and a resilient economy, giving the Fed more reason to keep interest rates high, liquidity remains locked, and the crypto market faces pressure.

The key to this round of market movement isn’t the candlestick patterns themselves; smart traders focus on two things: the US dollar index and Treasury yields. When the dollar index weakens, it often signals funds are flowing from safe dollar assets into high-risk assets, benefiting the crypto market. But if Treasury yields rebound, it indicates market expectations for interest rates are adjusting, and risk assets will face pressure.

Position management is the simplest yet most effective survival rule. During such data releases, volatility is often extreme, and overreactions in one direction can form within minutes. The tragedy of both long and short blowups happens every week. Instead of betting on the data itself, it’s better to set risk controls in advance. Market sentiment’s craziness often amplifies the impact of data.