The market now is like an anxious mouse, waiting for tonight's non-farm payroll data to reveal the cat's movements. Bitcoin's recent performance has indeed been somewhat speechless—after finally reaching 91,000 yesterday, it turned around and pulled back, now wandering below 90,000. There are plenty of positive news, but it fails to ignite market enthusiasm, feeling like having strength but nowhere to use it.

**Non-Farm Night, the Life and Death of Risk Assets**

Tonight at 21:30, the US December non-farm employment data will be released. This is a big event. The market generally expects around 70,000 new jobs added, with the unemployment rate possibly slightly decreasing. But this is the key—if the actual data far exceeds expectations, for example, breaking 100,000 with wage growth also high, the Federal Reserve's room to cut interest rates this year will be further squeezed. The US dollar index will continue to strengthen, and Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the entire risk asset sector will come under pressure. Conversely, if the data shows weakness, the expectation of rate cuts could "live" for a few more days, and Bitcoin might rebound on this opportunity.

**Dovish Signals from the Federal Reserve, but the Market Doesn't Buy It**

Recently, Fed officials' statements have been quite "dovish": some mentioned the possibility of a 150 basis point rate cut by 2026, and others hinted that the Fed Chair should take further action. From their words, the expectation of rate cuts still seems lively. But in reality, these positive signals quickly turn into "air" once implemented, and prices simply don't give them face. This is a typical "graveyard for retail traders trading on news"—the better the news, the greater the disappointment.

**Uncertainty in US Political Direction**

The US Senate is currently considering restricting executive power to take military action against Venezuela, which has sparked controversy within the Republican Party. Today, the Supreme Court will also rule on tariffs-related decisions, with industry expectations that some tariffs may be deemed illegal, potentially triggering a wave of refunds. These political factors will increase market uncertainty in the short term, especially causing disturbances in the valuation of the dollar and risk assets.

**Overall**, tonight's non-farm data is a watershed. Strong data will be bearish for risk assets, while weak data might leave room for a rebound. Against the backdrop of intertwined macro policies and political events, whether Bitcoin can hold above 90,000 depends on the face of various data.