2026-01-09 07:27:05

Today, regarding non-farm payroll data, I want to share some straightforward thoughts.

I’ve noticed that many people fall into a thinking trap: weak data → market surges, strong data → market crashes. It sounds logical, but trading based on this idea will mostly lead to losses. The reason is simple—the real way the market operates often contradicts retail traders’ intuition.

This is what I’ve observed repeatedly: market expectations always precede the actual data. This week’s non-farm payroll and initial jobless claims data have already led the market to a consensus—that non-farm payroll might be somewhat weak. Under this expectation, Bitcoin had already risen for a while. When the data is finally released today, if it just happens to meet the market’s expectations, that’s called expectation fulfillment. The problem is, expectation fulfillment often lacks novelty and can easily trigger profit-taking, preventing the market from pushing higher.

What’s even more painful is the moment the data is announced. I’ve reviewed countless historical movements and found that the first two or three minutes are often like this: a sharp rally or plunge, triggering stop-loss orders on leveraged positions, followed by a quick reversal. Only after market sentiment truly calms down does the market establish the expected trend. Many traders rushing to act immediately when the data is released get caught in this initial intense volatility—they get stopped out and miss the main trend that follows.

Therefore, my conclusion is that using the non-farm payroll data’s good or bad to predict short-term rises or falls is itself a trap. What’s more important is how big the gap is between the data and the market’s expectations, and how the market will digest this data once emotions settle.

The real risk isn’t in the data itself, but in the market’s already formed consensus. Most people chasing the immediate rise or fall at the moment of data release are actually providing liquidity for algorithmic preset paths. The true opportunity for strategic positioning often comes after market emotions have calmed down.

BTC-4,48%

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

22 Likes

Reward
22
8
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

CryptoTarotReader

· 01-12 04:00

It's the fear of being controlled by data again. I see so many people getting wiped out in the first two minutes of a dump. The market has already priced it in. Chasing that volatility just means giving your money to market makers. Waiting for calm is the real opportunity. We still need to be patient for this non-farm payroll report.

View OriginalReply0

GateUser-beba108d

· 01-11 09:59

To be honest, this analysis really hit the pain points that have been repeatedly exposed to me. The data in those two or three minutes was like a meat grinder.

View OriginalReply0

Tokenomics911

· 01-09 07:54

Damn, it's the same old story. Retail investors really need to wake up. Quick reflexes during non-farm data releases don't necessarily mean profits; they often lead to being swept out. Expectations being realized is the biggest trap. The things everyone is waiting for are often the least likely to happen. During the two or three minutes after the data is released, just don't touch anything. Let the algorithms do their thing. Waiting for the emotions to settle is the real play. This week, I saw so many people getting hammered instantly after the data release, stop-loss orders flying everywhere. It's hilarious—both providing liquidity and missing the right move. Instead of guessing whether the data will go up or down, it's better to look at where market consensus and reality diverge—that's where the money is. Agreed, predicting with data directly is a trap. The key is how big the expectation gap is. The most genuine setup opportunities never happen in the moment; they come after the emotions have calmed down.

View OriginalReply0

StealthMoon

· 01-09 07:51

It's the same old story of expectations being realized; I've seen it too many times. When the market moves in the opposite direction, the people who truly make money are already waiting for the sentiment to settle down.

View OriginalReply0

GweiWatcher

· 01-09 07:45

It's the same old trick of expectations being priced in, retail investors are still gambling on the ups and downs. --- Exactly, the two or three minutes after the data release are the best window for cutting losses. --- The expectations are already priced in; now it's just a matter of whether a black swan will hit. --- The core issue is the expectation gap, which I agree with. Most of the time, there's no surprise. --- A typical pattern of chasing hot topics and getting liquidated—I’ve seen too many cases. --- So the key is whether the non-farm payrolls will exceed expectations this time. If not, it will be boring sideways movement. --- The data itself is meaningless; the significance lies in how big players eat retail investors' stop-loss orders. --- I used to suffer losses from this logic before, now I’ve learned to wait until emotions settle before acting. --- Those who truly make money only act after a fake move; they won't follow the trend during those two minutes.

View OriginalReply0

LiquidityLarry

· 01-09 07:39

That's so true. I've been scammed like this before. This logic of expecting the landing → taking profits, I didn't understand it before, but now I feel enlightened. The two or three minutes after the data release are really hellish, with a bunch of stop-losses being wiped out. In the future, I'll wait until my emotions settle before taking action. Honestly, non-farm payroll data itself isn't that important; what's key is how the market reacts. I used to think about bottom-fishing or panic selling, but now I realize that's just providing liquidity to institutions. This kind of post-analysis is way more useful than listening to influencers spout nonsense.

View OriginalReply0

WhaleMinion

· 01-09 07:37

Damn, I got cut again, and the data instantly triggered a stop loss and exited.

View OriginalReply0

HashRateHustler

· 01-09 07:28

Bro, I have to say, I'm convinced by this set of theories. Once the expectations are realized, there's really no motivation left, it's truly mind-blowing.

View OriginalReply0