ETF outflows of 380 million but holding steady at 90,000: What is BTC brewing?

Bitcoin demonstrates unexpected resilience in seemingly contradictory environments. Despite recent net outflows of approximately $380 million from related ETF products, reflecting a defensive institutional sentiment, BTC remains firmly above the $90,000 psychological threshold. As of January 9, the trading price of Bitcoin is about $90,900, with a 24-hour increase of approximately 0.97%, a trading volume close to $41.6 billion in the past 24 hours, and a total market capitalization of about $1.82 trillion. This “pressure not breaking” phenomenon is crucial for understanding the current market rhythm.

Market signals behind price stability

Support from buying in defensive sentiment

Institutional fund outflows typically exert downward pressure on prices, but BTC’s performance reflects a different story. The price has not declined in tandem; instead, it remains sideways, indicating the market is gradually absorbing selling pressure. This is not out of control but a process of digesting the relative strength of different participants.

From a technical perspective, the continuously rising lows of Bitcoin indicate that buyers are stepping in early during pullbacks, which is a positive signal. The 50-day moving average is flattening and attempting to turn upward, RSI has fallen into a healthy range, and candlesticks are mostly doji and spinning tops, reflecting a market in a wait-and-see mode rather than distribution.

Market position continues to consolidate

Although short-term sentiment is cautious, BTC’s market share remains at 58.39%, with a circulating supply of 19,973,450 coins, close to the maximum supply of 21,000,000, at 95.11%. This combination of scarcity and market position provides structural support for the price.

Technical patterns hinting at the next move

Symmetrical triangle: Prelude to compression

The daily chart of Bitcoin is forming a typical symmetrical triangle pattern. The upper resistance comes from the descending trendline formed by the pullback from $107,000, while the lower support starts from the ascending trendline around $80,500. This pattern usually indicates continued contraction of volatility rather than trend termination, often setting the stage for a significant move in the next phase.

In other words, the current calmness does not mean a lack of direction but a waiting for a breakout moment.

Key levels and support/resistance

Technical indicators showing neutral to bullish signals

• RSI has fallen into a healthy range, with no obvious bearish divergence
• 50-day moving average is flattening and attempting to turn upward
• Candlesticks are mostly doji and spinning tops, indicating a wait-and-see rather than systematic distribution
• Rising lows show buying support

These features together do not signal bearishness but rather a period of waiting for confirmation.

Two possible future directions

Bullish scenario

If the daily chart effectively breaks above the $94,000–$97,300 zone, the price could quickly test $100,700 and further challenge the $105,000–$108,000 area. This path aligns with the expectation mentioned in the news that “a push towards $108,000” is possible.

Downside risks

Conversely, if the price falls below $90,000, caution is warranted for a pullback to $86,900 or even the structural support at $80,500. However, based on current technicals, this scenario has a relatively lower probability.

Summary

Bitcoin currently appears to be preparing for the next wave rather than reversing trend. The contradiction between ETF outflows and price stability actually reveals the true market state: forces from different participants are opposing each other, but overall buying support remains. The compression pattern of the symmetrical triangle suggests increasing volatility, with the key levels of $94,000–$97,300 serving as a pivot for trend confirmation.

For investors watching BTC, this consolidation period may be the prelude to a new wave of volatility, and patience and careful observation of key levels are often more important than rushing to judge the direction.