2026-01-09 08:24:25

The Bitcoin market has quietly shifted to a different rhythm. After the intense volatility at the end of 2025, many are betting that this is a sign of a crash or the start of a new bull market. But the reality might not be so dramatic — the market is brewing a long, monotonous sideways phase.

According to observations from on-chain data analysis agencies, the logic behind this is straightforward: new capital has dried up. That’s the core issue. Although capital hasn't fled the crypto market, it has shifted to traditional assets like stocks and commodities. This capital rotation is weakening the once unstoppable cyclical patterns.

Looking at the actions of institutional holders makes this clear. Long-term institutional investors holding 673,000 BTC are unlikely to dump a large portion all at once. As a result, it’s difficult for the market to experience the deep corrections and panic crashes typical of previous bear markets.

On-chain data further confirms this judgment. The Bitcoin Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) indicator shows that the market is currently in an early accumulation phase, still far from the frenzy stage. Looking at the performance of the US spot ETF, after a correction period since October last year, profit-taking pressure has eased, derivatives positions have been mostly cleared, and now net inflows are beginning to return. The market structure is gradually becoming healthier.

However, analysts still have differing views on the future. Optimists believe that as long as the regulatory environment remains favorable and macro conditions stabilize, Bitcoin’s recovery momentum in 2026 can continue. Conservatives warn that risks still exist in the coming months, although short-term declines may be limited.

The problem is that without large-scale new capital inflows and with long-term holders locking up liquidity, Bitcoin is unlikely to experience the rollercoaster rallies and crashes of the past. The upcoming phase is more like: using time to buy space, digesting floating supply through oscillations. This is a real test for investors — they need to step out of the mindset of chasing short-term volatility and look further ahead.

BTC1,84%

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

17 Likes

Reward
17
8
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

SmartContractPhobia

· 01-09 18:37

Sideways? That’s just a test of patience—who can hold on will win. All the new funds have gone into stocks, which is the most heartbreaking thing. Long-term institutions lock up liquidity, and retail investors can only wait and see. NUPL is in the critical zone; frankly, we just have to wait and not mess around. As for capital rotation, the roller coaster is gone, and now it’s starting to ride through the tunnel. No new blood, supported by old money—how much movement can this market really have? Regulation and macro factors—both need to stay out of trouble; the odds are a bit mysterious. Instead of chasing the waves, it’s better to let them digest slowly; anyway, rushing is useless. Limited short-term risks? Well, that depends on how you define "short-term." Using time to gain space sounds like chicken soup, but honestly, there’s no other way.

View OriginalReply0

BridgeNomad

· 01-09 15:35

nah, liquidity fragmentation hitting different this cycle. no fresh money = no explosive moves, just another sideways grind. seen this pattern before with bridge exploits—when TVL drains, volatility collapses fast.

Reply0

GateUser-6bc33122

· 01-09 08:52

Sideways market? That's just tormenting retail investors, nothing exciting about it.

View OriginalReply0

AirdropAnxiety

· 01-09 08:50

Sideways market? Sounds a bit boring, but I feel it's more torturous than those roller coaster rides. The drying up of new funds hit a nerve... No wonder we haven't seen any skyrocketing行情 recently. 67,300,000 Bitcoins are locked up, how boring is that... Retail investors can only wait here. Wait, using time to exchange for space? So I have to hold until 2027 to see any action, can I stay calm? Haha. ETF net inflow has turned back, is this a good sign or just another prelude to a new round of chopping the leeks... Basically, no one is willing to take over the position, institutions aren't dumping the market, so we'll just slowly stew here. Short-term declines are limited... that sounds more painful than a crash, a deadlock is truly the worst. Regulatory benefits and macro stability... when will these two conditions be met simultaneously? I'm a bit hopeless. Trying to jump out of the chase for volatility? Easier said than done, my eyes have long been glued to the candlesticks. NUPL is still in the accumulation phase, should I enter now or wait a bit longer... so conflicted.

View OriginalReply0

MysteriousZhang

· 01-09 08:49

Sideways? Then what am I still chasing? Might as well just trade stocks. --- 67.3 million Bitcoins are locked by institutions, now retail investors are really lying flat. --- No new funds entering the market, how long will this last? My patience is almost exhausted. --- Instead of waiting for oscillations to digest floating shares, why not look for other opportunities? --- The early accumulation zone sounds good, but it feels like we'll never get the chance to profit. --- Funds have moved to stocks and commodities, our crypto circle has really become the bag-holder. --- Time for space? Fine, I’ll just consider this Bitcoin "hibernating." --- Regulatory favorable policies and macroeconomic stability—have these two conditions ever appeared together? I haven't seen it. --- Institutions are not selling, new funds are drying up—are they trying to make us wait indefinitely? --- Short-term declines are limited, so the rebounds are also limited. Maybe it's better to give up.

View OriginalReply0

CommunitySlacker

· 01-09 08:44

Just sideways trading, so be it. Anyway, I've already given up and relaxed. It's better to save some effort than to watch the market every day. Talking about the drying up of new funds is just a nice way to put it. In reality, after the leek is harvested, the big players lock in their chips, and retail investors can only wait passively. I'm relieved as long as the机构 holds 670,000 coins and doesn't sell. At least the bottom line is there; just don't let another crash and shakeout happen. NUPL is already indicating an accumulation phase, yet some are still celebrating wildly. Wake up, everyone. This time really is different; we need to learn to wait. Here's a question: the net inflow of spot ETFs is starting to turn back. Is this really a sign that institutions are optimistic, or is it a signal of smart leek-cutting? I can't quite understand. Instead of guessing a recovery in 2026, it's better to focus on the risks of the coming months. No matter how optimistic the bulls sound, they can't cover the mentality during a sharp decline. Honestly, a market without large capital driving it is just torment. Instead of watching the ups and downs every day, it's better to do something productive and let Bitcoin fluctuate on its own.

View OriginalReply0

ColdWalletAnxiety

· 01-09 08:42

The idea that new funds are drying up is a bit extreme. Can the 670,000 BTC held by institutions really be held onto forever? Sideways trading isn't too bad to listen to, at least no need to be scared every day. This wave is basically digesting the accumulated chips from before, nothing too exciting to watch. Funds shifting to stocks and commodities? Can they shift back? That's just ridiculous. NUPL indicator early accumulation? I feel like it's still gathering momentum, no rush. You're right, short-term volatility thinking definitely needs to change, but who can really let go? Long-term holders locking up liquidity sounds like passive holding, haha. Using time to buy space, I like this phrase, finally someone talking sense. The premise of a favorable regulatory environment feels too optimistic; reality isn't that perfect. Digesting and absorbing floating chips through volatility, for retail investors, it's just repeated cuts. I ask you, isn't it?

View OriginalReply0

GasSavingMaster

· 01-09 08:41

Sideways? Then I better get ready to sleep; this pace is even slower than the change in my wallet balance. Running out of funds sounds nice; honestly, it just means no one is taking the bait, and the institutions are all counting their own coins. Wait, net inflow is starting to turn around? What is this hinting at, or am I overthinking it?

View OriginalReply0