There are many speculations in the market about the possibility of FTT founder SBF receiving a pardon. However, from multiple perspectives, such expectations are almost impossible to realize.

First, from the official stance. Trump explicitly stated in an interview with the media in January this year that there are no plans to exercise the pardon power for SBF. This official position directly closes the door to a pardon, and the probability of a reversal is extremely low.

Second, the fundamental political interests are in opposition. SBF donated $5.2 million to Biden's camp and holds an important position on the Democratic Party's donor list. Trump and the Democratic Party are naturally opposed politically; pardoning a former Democratic donor would surely anger conservative voters and undermine his political base—this political calculation is simply not worth it.

Next, consider legal and social impacts. SBF was sentenced to 25 years in prison for major crimes including embezzlement of customer funds, fraud, and conspiracy, involving a huge amount of money. The trauma caused to the market has not yet fully recovered. Pardoning him would trigger a public backlash and contradict Trump's public commitment to "crack down on financial crimes," making it too risky.

It is also worth noting that SBF has attempted to court the Republican Party through media in prison, hinting at a shift in stance in exchange for forgiveness. But this kind of opportunistic and insincere move is unlikely to gain the trust of decision-makers.

Finally, the pardon queue is already very long. The Trump administration faces a large number of pending pardon applications and, with limited political capital, will definitely prioritize those who have direct benefits for itself. In comparison, SBF's political value is negligible. Cryptocurrency market participants should recognize this and stop holding out hope for a pardon.