What is the most heartbreaking moment in trading? It's not how fierce the market drops, but the sense of resistance that rises from your bones when you lose money.



Some try to turn the situation around by adjusting their mindset, only to find it useless. In fact, it's not a matter of weak willpower, but a blockage at the fundamental logic of cognition—you're simply not understanding the true nature of losses, so the only reactions your brain can produce are denial and avoidance.

This cognitive gap leads many people down a seemingly reasonable but wrong path: desperately studying to improve win rates. The logic is straightforward—higher win rates mean more profits, right? But this is actually a mathematical trap.

Did you know? There is no causal relationship between win rate and long-term profitability. A system with only a 30% win rate can still do well if it strictly follows discipline, earning enough on each trade to offset several losses. Conversely, a strategy with a 90% win rate can be wiped out by a single unforeseen black swan event, where one loss consumes months of modest profits.

Where is the real dividing line? First, it's a breakthrough in psychological cognition. "Can't accept losses" means you haven't opened the door to trading properly; but "can't accept large unexpected losses" is the real technical issue—that tests your risk control ability.

Once you truly grasp the premise that "losses are inevitable," your entire thinking framework changes. Losses are no longer enemies to eliminate but costs that can be planned and managed.

So the focus shifts:

"How much am I willing to spend at most to endure this time?"

"How can I design this process to ensure this expenditure won't spiral out of control?"

"Can I rely on accumulating small costs over multiple trades to eventually catch an opportunity that covers everything and generates profit?"

This is no longer about mindset cultivation; it's about strategic planning and risk management. You start to plan losses like a business, set stop-losses with an engineer's mindset, and no longer fight against the emotions of loss but learn to coexist with them—treating them as an indispensable fuel to sail toward the shores of profit.
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ShibaMillionairen'tvip
· 01-09 10:03
A 30% win rate still enjoys a good life, while a 90% strategy can be wiped out by a single black swan event... I need to think about this contrast.
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RooftopVIPvip
· 01-09 10:03
Oh, you're absolutely right. Win rate is really a trap. --- A 90% win rate can still lead to bankruptcy, while a 30% win rate can survive. That contrast... is shocking. --- The core is stop-loss and position management. Many people are still trying to predict price movements. --- If you can't get past accepting losses, any mental adjustment is useless. Truly. --- Treat losses as costs. Once you change your mindset, everything clicks. --- Risk management > win rate, always the ultimate rule. --- Every time you lose money and resist it, doesn't that mean you haven't understood the essence of trading yet? --- Plan for losses instead of trying to eliminate them. That logic has some substance. --- The write-up on black swans is excellent. Many high win rate traders fall victim here. --- The problem isn't in your mindset; it's in not knowing how to set stop-loss levels.
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MidnightGenesisvip
· 01-09 10:01
On-chain data shows that win rate and returns are not linearly related. My observation is that most people rush to optimize strategies without even setting up basic risk models, which is fundamentally putting the cart before the horse.
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ForkThisDAOvip
· 01-09 09:50
To be honest, whether the win rate is high or not isn't really the point. The ones who truly survive are those who are meticulous about risk control.
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