When is the most probable time for the best bull market to occur - Cryptocurrency exchange platform

The best bull markets always come after a disaster. When I talk about disasters, I don’t mean crashes in the crypto or stock markets, but rather disasters following wars, or major economic crises, or large financial crises. The money lost in the crypto or stock markets is just the money of those market participants, but the impact on the world is not significant unless these market crashes lead to further disasters.

For example, the 1929 stock market crash in the US caused a severe depression. To give another example, China has not experienced major disasters, financial crises, or economic crises in the past three or four decades, let alone wars. As of September 2020, we haven’t seen these events in the past 40 years, so there’s no basis for comparison. Here, I will only discuss the US as an example to give everyone a sense.

For instance, in the 1920s, the US experienced a strong bull market that lasted from 1920 until 1927. After World War II, the economy began to recover, and people’s lifestyles changed significantly. During each war, to win or sustain survival, countries made many industrial adjustments. They used extreme methods to develop new technologies, channeling all national resources into scientists and engineers to develop new weapons and technologies to survive and defeat opponents. After wars, these technologies and R&D efforts were transferred to the civilian sector, and military products were adapted for civilian use, leading to the development of many new tools and methods, whether in manufacturing or other areas, which then spread to the public.

This period saw the emergence of many excellent companies and thriving industries. The US also saw the rise of such enterprises during that time. War often causes people to tire of old lifestyles and thinking, seeking change, making it an era of innovation and transformation. In such a society eager for change, opportunities for wealth transfer through innovation are abundant, and new companies often rise during bull markets.

Whether driven by economic reasons or war, major financial crises are triggered by societal economic downturns. Financial crises themselves are not so terrifying; they only harm some investors. If investors run out of funds, it ultimately affects the economy’s stability, impacting everyone. When did the US experience its second economic crisis? After WWII, generally, a bull market doesn’t start immediately after a war ends; there is usually a two- or three-year recovery period. So, at that time, a bull market wouldn’t have occurred because people’s confidence was still low.

Therefore, bull markets typically don’t appear immediately after wars; they usually take three or four years to develop. By then, many technological methods have begun to spread, creating new industries and companies. That’s how I understand it. After WWII, the 1950s became America’s golden age, with rapid expansion of fast food, automobiles, and televisions, along with household appliances like washing machines and dryers, leading to a significant bull market.

When did the third US bull market occur? It was due to the Vietnam War, which lasted over a decade, from the 1960s until 1975 or 1976. Later, the US faced long periods of oil crises and inflation, with the economy remaining weak. After these issues subsided, in the early 1980s, around 1981 and 1982, another bull market emerged, lasting nearly 20 years until the dot-com bubble burst. During this period, the US entered the information age, with major changes in IT, communications, information industries, and even biopharmaceuticals.

People’s lifestyles changed dramatically. The most recent bull market lasted over ten years, driven by the US’s 2008 subprime mortgage crisis and subsequent financial crisis, which then led to another bull run. This bull market was long and substantial, continuing to this day. As I mentioned earlier, these genuine bull markets often coincide with changes in lifestyles and thinking, with governments lowering interest rates and increasing money supply to stimulate the economy, creating necessary conditions for a bull market.

When the economy is weak or a financial crisis occurs, crypto and stock prices tend to be low, making it easier for the economy to recover, and the markets to rise. After a disaster or war, recovery is inevitable because these are cyclical processes. I will discuss cycles in a series of programs. When the economy hits a low point, or after a war or disaster, recovery begins, and many new companies emerge while old ones perish, new industries are born, and government stimulus measures, like low interest rates, are implemented.

In such times, new industries and sectors are recovering, and demand gradually returns, much like a sick patient beginning to recover, with appetite improving. Currently, crypto and stock prices are very low, and future interest rates are also very low, which will increase market liquidity. These four factors will drive development in this field and will inevitably change people’s lifestyles. After each war, each generation hopes to have a new way of life, seeking change and innovation, which promotes the development of many industries and companies, and good enterprises will emerge accordingly.

Because China has not experienced these crises in the past 40 years, every company has continued to produce, unscathed by disasters or destruction. As a result, each enterprise has grown stronger, and entrepreneurs have expanded production over the years due to ongoing urbanization, marking a special phase.

Except for the recent four or five years when China’s economy started to decline and people began to feel some bitterness, compared to these so-called disasters—whether war or economic crises—they are on a different level. This is an unprecedented situation for everyone. Therefore, entrepreneurs always believe the future will be bright. They borrow a lot of money, having tasted success before, but now also tasting hardship, with more and more people going bankrupt due to debt. I believe that for two or three generations in China, this is the first time facing such a situation, and I am unsure how long it will last.

Overall, the overcapacity caused by decades of optimism has made everyone uncomfortable. The main reason is not just weak demand but also excess supply. There was no real collapse or bankruptcy experience during this period, so people are just beginning to understand what bankruptcy feels like. After so many years, China has not experienced a true major bull market. My theory is that, based on my century-long observation of the US, China’s real big bull market will only occur after a major crisis. Such crises—war, economic, or financial—must be endured before a resurgence, a rebirth. This is a bold guess with no basis.

I believe that at that time, there will be a huge blow to real industries, and people’s lifestyles will change even more dramatically. More great companies and industries will be born. Excess capacity that has been eliminated, many companies that have gone bankrupt, and the low-performing competitors eliminated by economic crises—only the truly capable will survive, with excellent products, strong corporate culture, and capable management. After disasters, there will be a recovery period, and these great companies will see their profits increase.

Holders of these companies’ tokens or stocks will earn more money, potentially triggering a new bull market—this is my theory. However, I haven’t seen a real major disaster in China yet, and I hope it doesn’t happen. As a common person, I truly hope it doesn’t occur. I don’t want to make money from such events, nor do I want my country to suffer disasters to increase my wealth. That’s not what I wish for. I am only explaining this pattern to everyone. The real big bull market, if US experience is a reference, might appear after a significant disaster, when people lose confidence, investors lose faith in listing, many companies go bankrupt, and many people become unemployed. Under such circumstances, a good bull market could still emerge.

I just want to remind everyone here: when that day comes, whether you are viewers or listeners in front of the camera, don’t lose confidence or faith. Please remember what I am saying. Maybe in five years or three years—I can’t predict or know—these disasters might come in the form of war, economic, or financial crises. But once such a disaster occurs, don’t leave the crypto or stock markets. When everyone despairs and sees no hope for the future, that might be your opportunity to increase your wealth.

Remember my words: stay confident. At that time, when most people lack confidence, and crypto and stock prices are at their lowest, interest rates are also at their lowest, and the country is promoting the economy, with economic recovery underway and new industries emerging, you should stay calm, find what you like, and identify a good company with strong management to realize your first wealth.