Here's an honest piece of advice for everyone: before attempting to catch the bottom, you must first learn to identify the true signals of the market. Recently, many people have asked me, "Can I enter now to buy BTC?" My first reaction after reviewing the weekly chart is—this is not an opportunity, this is a risk.

Let me start with my background. Since entering the crypto space, I have experienced the 2017 bull-bear transition and the intense volatility of 2021, witnessing too many investors suffer huge losses due to neglecting technical analysis. This time, the weekly signal of BTC is the clearest warning I’ve seen in half a year, and I’m not exaggerating.

Today’s focus is to help everyone understand the "Head and Shoulders" pattern. Many people treat it as mystical, but it’s actually a straightforward reflection of market psychology. You can think of it like this: candlesticks are like a mountain climbing process, and the head and shoulders pattern signals that the climber’s stamina is gradually running out and they are preparing to retreat.

How to interpret it specifically? In the left shoulder phase, BTC rises to a high point and then pulls back slightly—that’s like the climber taking a rest. Then the head forms, with the price reaching a new high, seemingly unstoppable, but at this point, the buying momentum is actually starting to weaken, similar to only just reaching the summit on tiptoe. When the right shoulder forms, attempting to push higher again, but without reaching the height of the left shoulder, and then begins to decline, it indicates that the upward momentum has been completely exhausted.

The most critical point to judge is the "neckline break." The neckline is the straight line connecting the two lows between the left shoulder and the head, acting as a "defense line." Once the weekly chart effectively breaks below this key level, it means that the bulls’ defense line has collapsed from a technical perspective. Last week’s weekly chart of BTC is confirming this process.

Why is this pattern so important? Because it represents not just a shape, but a change in the true intentions of market participants. When new highs become increasingly difficult to break and the pullbacks grow stronger, it reflects that the bearish forces are gradually accumulating. Recklessly trying to catch the bottom often results in catching falling knives.

I’m not saying you should never enter the market, but timing is crucial. The value of technical analysis lies in helping you find positions with higher probabilities. Only after the neckline is effectively broken and the space is fully released does the trading signal at the bottom become more meaningful.

Remember one thing: there will always be opportunities in the market, but chasing highs and bottom fishing is not a wise move. Protect your capital, wait for more certain signals, and that is the long-term survival strategy.