Although the short-term trend is weak, on-chain data shows that Ethereum has deep support levels. According to CryptoQuant analysis, the average cost basis (realized price) of long-term accumulated addresses has stabilized in the $2700-$2800 range, forming a structural cost baseline bottom. This region has demonstrated resilience across multiple market cycles in the past and is an important reference for assessing the long-term health of the market. However, short-term funding signals a negative outlook. Data indicates that after a brief inflow at the beginning of the year, the US spot Ethereum ETF has shifted to a net outflow since mid-last week, with recent outflows totaling approximately $258 million. This trend is consistent with the large-scale outflows seen in spot Bitcoin ETFs, indicating that institutional investors have become cautious at the start of the new year, weakening the market's direct buying pressure.