Recently, SEI's retracement has left many people wondering—Is this a trap to cut the leeks, or a genuine opportunity to build positions?

As someone who has been active in the crypto market for 8 years, I want to analyze SEI's current situation based on actual data. To be clear, I never promote any "must rise" or "guaranteed profit" claims, because the risks in the crypto space are well known. Today's perspective is solely based on the volatility patterns of SEI over the past 3 years, on-chain fund flows, and the overall market cycle—just for reference. Ultimately, how you choose to operate depends on your own judgment.

**Why might this dip actually present an opportunity?**

Looking at the chart, SEI has indeed formed a somewhat unappealing downward trend line, and many new investors have started panic selling. But from two key angles, the current price range might be forming a relatively reasonable valuation window.

**From on-chain data, observe the distribution of chips.** Recently, by examining SEI's on-chain information, I found an interesting phenomenon: addresses of long-term holders (commonly called "diamond hands") haven't shown a significant reduction in holdings. A large amount of selling pressure comes from short-term speculative funds, which indicates that the project's fundamentals haven't changed significantly. The real culprit is market sentiment fluctuation. This kind of decline driven purely by emotion often creates a low-price accumulation window.

**From the market cycle perspective, consider the timing.** The entire crypto market operates within an intrinsic cycle. When placing SEI's correction within the overall cycle framework, its depth and duration align with historical patterns. This doesn't mean an immediate rebound is guaranteed, but it does suggest that the current risk-reward ratio is starting to become relatively balanced.

All of these observations are based on verifiable on-chain indicators and historical data—not feelings or intuition. If you're considering participating, it's advisable to start small and manage your risk exposure carefully.