The latest US non-farm payroll data did not meet market expectations. Although the unemployment rate has slightly risen, this result completely shattered the market's anticipation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in January. Originally, everyone was expecting the rate cut policy to boost liquidity for risk assets like Bitcoin. But when that hope was dashed, the dollar immediately strengthened, and BTC was hit hard. Institutional funding enthusiasm has also noticeably cooled down. Over the past few days, exchanges have seen continuous net fund inflows, indicating that everyone is starting to adopt a cautious wait-and-see attitude.

BTC has been oscillating around the 90500 level, attempting three times to break above 95000 but failing each time. It finally had to dip down to 89300 to find support. According to the liquidation map, both ends are stacked with hundreds of millions of dollars in leveraged positions, a typical long-short tug-of-war scenario. The greed index has returned to the neutral zone, reflecting a weakened willingness among the market to chase higher prices. Overall volatility has slowed down, and in the short term, it is likely to remain within this range.

On-chain indicators are quite interesting. Investor confidence is slowly approaching the zero axis. Although the logic for a rebound still holds, the process will likely be quite frustrating, with a "two steps forward, one step back" feeling persisting. To truly return to the confidence zone, more time is probably needed. From the monthly Bollinger Bands perspective, divergence is becoming more apparent, indicating that the market is at a critical point in the bull-bear battle. Moving forward, close attention should be paid to whether support appears after retesting the middle band.

Some opinions believe that BTC has already gained the strength to compete alongside top US blue-chip stocks and that 2026 could be a pivotal period determining its long-term trend. However, the current market is like a saw being pulled apart; it’s not realistic to expect a quick surge. The overall direction is optimistic, with some believing it will eventually grow steadily like leading US stocks, but recent positive news has not materialized, and the dollar is gaining strength again. Naturally, everyone is choosing to stay on the sidelines.

Operational advice: don’t fight the market now. If you have positions, take profits on short-term swings when the opportunity arises. If the price breaks below key support levels, exit immediately. The whole market is waiting for this wave of wind to pass. Instead of rushing to act, it’s better to keep a calm mindset, observe more, and operate less.