Recent data trends are worth paying attention to. On one hand, Arkham tracking shows that 3,000 ETH (approximately $9.28 million) have been transferred to a major exchange, and such large transfers often imply that holders may have selling intentions, indicating subtle changes in market participants' behavior.

On the other hand, macro signals are equally important. The US December non-farm payroll data showed mixed results — the overall employment market is mildly declining, but the unemployment rate has slightly improved, giving the Federal Reserve a reason to hold steady in January. More notably, based on the pricing of interest rate futures and US Treasuries, the market currently expects the Fed not to cut rates in January, but the earliest possible start for rate cuts is in June.

Why is this important for the crypto market? Simply put, rate cuts often mean increased liquidity and a rising willingness among investors to seek higher-yield assets. When the Fed's rate cut expectations become clear, risk assets including ETH usually experience a new valuation logic. This also explains why recent market sensitivity to monetary policy expectations has been so high. Weak employment data, declining new jobs and job vacancy rates, along with slowing wage growth, are all driving the market to reprice the probability of rate cuts. For traders participating in the crypto market, it’s crucial to pay attention to such large on-chain flows and understand the deeper impact of the Fed’s policy rhythm on the rotation of risk assets.