The probability of Trump's impeachment reaches a historic high of 57%. How does political risk affect the crypto market?

Political Risk Signals at Historic Highs

According to the latest news, prediction market platform Kalshi shows that the probability of Trump being impeached again during the 2025-2029 term has risen to 57%, reaching a historic high. This data reflects the tense state of U.S. politics and serves as a warning to market investors.

Why Is the Impeachment Probability Rising Rapidly?

The Midterm Elections as a Key Variable

Trump previously stated that if Democrats win big in the 2026 midterm elections, he might face a new round of impeachment attempts. Reports indicate that polls are already reflecting this trend: Trump’s support is declining, and Democrats hold the majority in the House of Representatives. This provides a basis for the potential impeachment.

The Complexity of the Political Environment

The current U.S. political landscape is fraught with multiple uncertainties:

• The Supreme Court tariff case decision is expected on January 13, which could trigger political upheaval
• A vote on the crypto market legislation is scheduled for next Thursday, involving regulatory directions
• Several policies of the Trump administration are legally contested
• Political divisions are intensifying on key issues

These factors compound, heightening market concerns over political risks.

Implications of the Prediction Market

Kalshi is a platform that reflects market participants’ expectations in real-time. A 57% impeachment probability means that prediction market participants believe the likelihood of Trump being impeached during this term has exceeded half. This figure hits a new record, indicating that political risk assessments are rapidly rising.

How Political Risks Are Transmitted to the Crypto Market

Direct Impact of Policy Uncertainty

Increased political risk means greater uncertainty about policy directions. The crypto market is highly sensitive to policy environments:

• Regulatory policies may change due to political shifts
• Uncertainty in tariff policies directly affects the dollar’s movement
• Federal Reserve policies could shift under political pressure
• National strategic asset policies (such as Bitcoin reserve plans) may be impacted

Safe-Haven Demand for Risk Assets

When political risks rise, investors typically:

• Increase allocations to safe-haven assets
• Reduce exposure to high-risk assets
• Seek highly liquid trading instruments
• Pay close attention to macro policy trends

This influences the demand structure and price volatility of crypto assets.

Key Upcoming Dates

Summary

The 57% impeachment probability for Trump reflects deep instability in the U.S. political ecosystem. This figure is not a prediction but a risk assessment by market participants based on current information. For the crypto market, it means policy uncertainty will remain elevated for a considerable period.

In the short term, the Supreme Court tariff case decision (January 13) and the crypto market legislation vote are two key points to watch. In the medium term, the outcome of the 2026 midterm elections will directly influence Trump’s political space and policy implementation capacity. Regardless, the crypto market should prepare for potential volatility caused by political risks. This is not about pessimism but about recognizing that current political uncertainty has become a significant variable affecting markets.