#美国贸易赤字状况 $BTC

**$1 Million Bitcoin: Market Cycle or Macro Necessity?**

The logic behind Bitcoin reaching six figures in USD isn't actually complicated. When you step back from trading pairs and view it from a global asset allocation perspective, everything makes sense.

First is the systemic change in institutional holdings. Today's BTC spot ETF is no longer just passive buying; it has evolved into a strategic reserve tool at the sovereign level. As top global capital and national forces begin to compete for the last liquidity, Bitcoin's role shifts from a commodity to a scarce asset. This exponential increase in demand is essentially a re-pricing.

Second is the technical support from the halving cycle. After the 2024 halving, a new four-year cycle begins, and historical data shows that this phase often sees the most aggressive rallies. Coupled with expectations of loose global liquidity, 2026 is very likely to be the peak of this cycle's price. This is not an emotional prediction but a mathematical problem based on on-chain cycles.

**Some thoughts at this stage:**

Don't be overly sensitive to short-term volatility. Market adjustments are just large funds optimizing their holdings. A few thousand dollars of retracement compared to a million-dollar target is essentially noise in mathematical terms. The key is to stick to your strategy, not follow every emotional wave.

Scarcity of chips is an eternal theme. As institutional allocation deepens, the actual tradable volume in circulation will become increasingly limited. This structural contradiction can ultimately only be resolved through price.

The $1 million in 2026 is not a fantasy; it is the result of reallocation of global liquidity and scarce assets.